Wireless carriers ponder technology flip

BellSouth International, Nextel examine CDMA As wireless carriers consider the economics of next generation services, the industry may stray from traditional migration plans when it comes to deploying high-speed data networks.

Already, BellSouth International is making the decision to overlay CDMA-based 1XRTT technology over its existing TDMA networks in Latin America. And nationwide U.S. operator Nextel, which uses GSM derivative iDEN technology, also may change technology for the next generation. The carrier has told Wall Street analysts that it is studying 1X technology in addition to enhanced data rates for GSM evolution (EDGE) technology. Nextel did not return phone calls seeking comment.

"BellSouth is very heavily leaning toward CDMA as an overlay eventually in all of its markets over the course of a three-year period," said a source familiar with BellSouth's plans.

Migration to 1X technology could be common as carriers review the economics of moving toward a data market that is unproven at this point, say industry observers. 1X technology adds voice capacity and high data speeds within today's spectrum constraints. Wideband CDMA (W-CDMA) networks require carriers to carve out large chunks of their existing spectrum - a negative because it's unclear how much spectrum will be available to U.S. operators.

TDMA and GSM carriers have a common high-speed data migration path called EDGE technology, which will require core network changes for TDMA operators to reach high data speeds with no capacity enhancements. Nextel previously has aligned itself with the GSM community.

"There's a concern for spectrum, and 1X is more spectrally efficient than EDGE or W-CDMA," said Neal Campbell, director of CDMA product operations for Motorola. "There is a lot of discussions going on. People are considering CDMA.... Operators are doing the cost/benefit analysis and realizing they still have to make significant upgrades to go to EDGE or UMTS."

Carriers deploying 1X technology have more high-speed data options because they can dedicate a 1.25 MHz channel to reach speeds of 2 Mb/s. The CDMA community also is trying to standardize higher-speed technologies that would provide speeds of up to 5 Mb/s.

"In the long term, it's a great upgrade path," said Dave Berndt, director of wireless mobile technologies for The Yankee Group. "With the capacity factor, carriers don't have to go to [wideband systems]."

Timing is another factor. EDGE technology won't become commercially ready until late 2002. Korean CDMA operator SK Telecom already launched the service, while U.S. carriers have deployment plans for mid-2001. Sources close to BellSouth say the carrier wants to hit the market with data before its TDMA competitors in Latin America.

Many technology analysts say 1X could become a de facto standard for operators constrained by spectrum. For example, all three of Korea's CDMA operators deploy 1X technology within their existing systems but have stated their intention to deploy W-CDMA technology within new 3G spectrum.

Nextel also is likely to deploy W-CDMA technology in new bands if it gains enough spectrum in future auctions, analysts say.

"Nextel wants to talk to everyone because it realizes iDEN is a dead end," said Matthew Hoffman, wireless communication equipment analyst for Wit SoundView. "It's clear they need to explore other options, and CDMA is a viable strategy in terms of what you can do with spectrum. Nextel would have the rip out infrastructure either way."

Switching to 1X technology may not be any more expensive than migrating to EDGE technology. Seventy percent of capital expenditures lie within the base transceiver stations (BTSs), meaning carriers would have to make significant changes regardless of technology, Campbell said.

It's also unclear whether EDGE technology will gain the economies of scale sought by the TDMA community when it aligned itself with the GSM world. European operators have yet to announce their intentions to deploy it. Some analysts say European carriers may skip the technology altogether and choose to spend their money on W-CDMA.