Voice's new groove

Data will not replace voice. Interactive content will not replace voice. Video applications will not replace voice. The demise of the circuit-switched network does not portend the death of voice. Don't believe the hype.

Despite everything data and video applications have to offer, despite all the different media becoming increasingly available for carrying content over networks and delivering it to customers, none of it will ever entirely supplant voice. Voice is, in fact, an integral component of all those modes of communication. Think voice portals on commerce sites, voice-activated services or the obvious implications of a videoconference with no audio.

Is voice dying? No. Is voice changing? Yes. Will voice as we know it ultimately be replaced? Yes. Voice will be replaced by voice.

Alterations in the mechanisms used to create, transport, deliver and enhance applications are what mark the underlying transformation of communications, not just the applications themselves. Over time, traditional voice formats will be replaced by radically different ones, but the end result will be essentially the same.

Voice over IP, wireless voice, voice over DSL, softswitch-generated voice delivered by ASPs - these are the real revolutionary applications that will replace the extant circuit-switched voice norm.

The entities that deliver voice to the end customer also will change. It's already happening: AT&T and WorldCom are easing their way out of the consumer long-distance business, declaring it a no-growth enterprise. Organizations that take alternative approaches to carrying and delivering voice applications are already stepping in to replace them - and, in fact, could be partially responsible for why the margins of those companies have started to plummet.

As Genuity Chairman and CEO Paul Gudonis points out in Michael Hanley's profile of the company on page 48, the incumbents are lamenting the bleed of long-distance minutes from their networks even as Genuity marks the 1 billion minute milestone on its IP network. Verizon Long Distance, meanwhile, reportedly surpassed the 1 million minute mark in the New York long-distance market earlier this year - a market it was allowed by law to enter only one year ago. And while the revenue potential for those minutes may indeed be slipping, so, too, are the costs of equipping a network to carry them.

If you're still not convinced that the concept of voice will endure, visit the R&D facility of a service provider pursuing a packet-based alternative approach to voice and ask to participate in a demo. This generally consists of picking up a phone that looks like any other phone and talking to someone in a lab coat standing 10 feet away. They might even let you check your voice mail or call Mom.

What you hear won't be any different from the call you made yesterday from the phone on your desk or the one you'll make tonight in your kitchen. It will sound exactly the same.