Preaching the WiMAX Gospel

Let's all take a quick quiz. Do you have an unflagging belief in the ultimate success of 802.16-2005? Do you use terms like 4G, Mobile WiMAX and personal broadband interchangeably … and with gusto? Are you oblivious to market discord when it comes to the glorious WiMAX future?

If you answered “yes” to all of the above, then you're an evangelist of the highest order, the type of person any fledgling technology needs.

If you answered “no” — thanks for being honest. Still, you must know that WiMAX success will depend on more than technical merits. It will require the engagement of WiMAX bigots, people who can convince regulators, operators and ecosystem partners alike that WiMAX will live up to the hype. Sure, WiMAX will get deployed in the 2.5 GHz and 3.5 GHz bands if only because of convenience and product availability. However, grand visions of WiMAX-enabled iPods in the 700 MHz, 1.5 GHz or 2.1 GHz bands (2.5 GHz in Europe?) will require a compelling technology tied to compelling products and uber-compelling marketing.

You're probably already familiar with the WiMAX promise: spectral efficiency plus spectrum flexibility plus open standards plus lots of bandwidth plus emerging markets plus mature markets plus planes, trains and automobiles. The second step is tougher. It starts by acknowledging potential holes in the WiMAX pitch and preparing a pithy comeback. There's no shortage of arguments out there, but here's a start.

• WiMAX and 3G offer identical spectral efficiencies.

• 3G will adopt efficiency enhancements like multiple input/multiple output technology.

• Operators can't sell 3G. They have no need for something more.

• There is no WiMAX ecosystem.

• By the time WIMAX gear is ready for primetime, 3G follow-ons like the long-term evolution (LTE) standard and CDMA EV-DO Rev. C will be here.

• Focused on the physical and access layers, there is no WIMAX core.

• Without a standard core, simple roaming and authentication are impossible.

• Mobile WiMAX evolved from a fixed-data technology. True mobility and voice services will never compete with 3G.

You can concoct your own responses. I prefer something simple. With no legacy to hinder it, WiMAX was built from the most advanced wireless technologies available. This is why LTE, EV-DO Rev. C and WiMAX look similar. Assumptions dictate performance expectations. But when combined with MIMO and/or adaptive antenna systems, WiMAX is more efficient than 3G — allowing operators to offer services at price points that will ensure the success that has eluded 3G. Backed by open standards, an ecosystem of inexpensive infrastructure and devices will follow, long before an LTE or EV-DO Rev. C ecosystem and long before 3G brings MIMO into the mainstream. Likewise, backed by moves to a common IP core and industry standard authentication solutions core issues will get solved as will voice and mobility applications.

Not long ago, I was on a 3G versus WiMAX panels. We were asked if WiMAX was disruptive. The response from key industry supporters: “potentially” and “it's trending in that direction.” True, but unacceptable. Anyone who wants WiMAX to be more than a minor success must speak with authority about its future success. This is how leaders act. They focus on business issues, prepared to quickly and convincingly dismiss the naysayers.

If you hope to see WiMAX succeed, you need to be a leade.

Peter Jarich is a senior analysis for Current Analysis. He can be reached at pjarich@currentanalysis.com.