The next new network

Such reservations from CDMA stalwarts are likely to send shivers through the 3GPP2 vendor community. 3GPP2 technologies are in no danger of dying out. There are 300 million subscribers on CDMAOne, CDMA 1X and EV-DO networks today, and many CDMA carriers still have a long 3G migration path to keep vendors in the black for years to come. But the technology is also losing supporters. Both South Korea's KTF and SK Telecom — two of CDMA's first movers — have deployed universal mobile telecommunications system (UMTS) networks to harmonize their networks with the 3GPP-dominated world. The third-largest CDMA provider in the world, Vivo, also is indicating doing the same, starting with a Huawei-built GSM network it can upgrade to UMTS.

Those carriers aren't abandoning CDMA by any means. They have extensive nationwide CDMA networks that still will require maintenance, upgrades and handsets. But if they opt to build their future networks while moving along the GSM/UMTS path, they may call into question the future of 3GPP2 technologies. While the 3GPP2 has attracted enough adherents worldwide to make CDMA a competitive global technology, it's not clear it can do the same for UMB. With Sprint defecting; KTF, SKT and Vivo deploying multiple 3G technologies (the South Koreans have even begun investing in WiMAX); and Verizon Wireless weighing its options, it's not hard to see why the economies of scale for future UMB product lines could be a lot smaller.

Consequently, vendors appear to be adopting the same attitude toward UMB as many of their customers, taking a neutral stance and promoting OFDM access technologies as a whole, rather than a specific standard. EV-DO technologist Airvana, although it is certainly not abandoning CDMA, is taking a more neutral technology approach by developing universal access gateways designed to fit into any flat IP architecture — LTE, UMB, WiMAX or otherwise — said Sanjeev Verma, vice president of business development for Airvana.

Chinese CDMA vendor ZTE is participating in the 3GPP2 standards process and investing heavily in UMB research and development, but it has not yet committed to developing a UMB product. Shen Donglin, vice president of radio wireless technology for ZTE, explained that developing OFDM technology is relatively inexpensive — work done on one OFDM technology can be applied to another — but building a UMB product line requires a much higher investment, which ZTE isn't willing to make until there is certain demand for the technology.