Network Millennium: As the industry balances on the precipice of the next century, Telephony considers the technologies, companies and concepts-some new, some ageless-that will take it there

Some day, those whose task it is to chronicle the transformation of the telecom industry are likely to look back and say that it all started with the Internet.

A detailed and careful retrospective will ultimately prove that the telecommunications network revolution that gripped the end of the 20th century resulted from an amalgamation of hundreds, if not thousands, of factors. But over time, the Internet is sure to become a kind of historical point of reference-an icon for our time-that will be used to mark the turning point.

The concept of the Internet does indeed provide a sense of reason for what is happening in telecom networks today. The demand for high-speed, high-capacity data services has increased dramatically of late, due in large part to the popularity of the Internet. Existing and new networks are being designed to account for that demand, based on countless new technologies that have been developed in response to it.

But telecom industry insiders know that what is happening right now is not only about the Internet or even about a recent surge in data networking. It is about new applications, new ways to communicate and transport information, and the role network operators have in facilitating that. It is about the integration of disparate services like voice, data and video into singular network pipes, and how carriers and their network suppliers are responding to that need. It is about competition, and how pressure from upstarts and niche operators is changing the way incumbent operators and the industry as a whole function.

In this Special Report on the 21st Century Network, Telephony's editors have created a sort of network time capsule-a snapshot of what is happening in technology, networking and services today and how it will affect network operations in the beginning of the next millennium. We have encapsulated the services, strategies and network technologies that are having the most powerful impact across all sectors of the industry, and we have turned to industry experts in all of those sectors to provide their perspectives, predictions and opinions.

Our examination of the future of telecommunications is by definition multidimensional because there is no single answer. The networks of the future will not answer an either/or question. Rather, they will behave like multifunctional, multitechnological, fluid beings. They will be altered when methods of improvement become available, and those methods will be continuously tweaked and adapted-and sometimes discarded-as development dictates. One network will merge into another, either at a marked external point or in nebulous, internal, nearly undefinable ways.

Recognizing that, we have not tried to put borders on development or create arbitrary categories in our industry report, but we have packaged our content to make it accessible and organized. Therefore, the first part examines existing wireline networks and the technologies being used to update and adapt them. The second part provides a glimpse into how Internet protocol has become arguably the biggest driver of change in telecom today. And we close our package with a look at the evolution of wireless networks and their role in the scheme of the next century.

Throughout all of it, we delve into the ongoing efforts of some of the most prominent network operators in all these areas to provide a balanced picture of what is going on all around you.

We recognize-as do the carriers and equipment manufacturers that play such crucial roles in this industry shift-that some of what is happening now could be the crux of tomorrow, and that some may have no bearing whatsoever on the future. This is an industry in constant flux, one in which predictive modeling is a difficult and dangerous task.

But it is not impossible. Consider the technologies covered in this report: Some of them have just recently emerged, but most are based on years of development and research into how service demands are likely to alter and how networks can accommodate that alteration. Some of the carrier strategies covered here are new, but most are metered and incremental, the result of years of planning.

There is no way to flawlessly predict the future, but to identify trends and track developments is to glimpse what the beginning of the next century will likely have in store. We hope this report serves as a road map to help you get there.