So near, so far: Convergence is another five years away, executives say

Convergence of the various telecommunications offerings will take another few years and will be greatly influenced by globalization and technology more than the 1996 Telecommunications Act, a survey of industry executives has found.

The 1997 Executive Convergence Study was done by the entertainment, media and communications group of the New York-based Price Waterhouse LLP. The survey, which polled 100 high-level executives on the subject of convergence, was released last week as part of the company's EMC Technology Forecast of 1998.

Of the executives surveyed, 54% described themselves as "somewhat familiar" with convergence, as opposed to "very familiar." The reluctance to call themselves familiar with convergence is indicative of the ever-changing definition of the word.

"Right now, there are as many definitions of convergence as there are snowflakes in Denver," said Jennifer Taylor, a senior partner in the EMC group. "It varies from period to period as other technologies emerge."

Price Waterhouse defined convergence as the "merging or blending together of technologies and telecommunications, movies, television, music and related areas." A majority, 72%, said convergence is not yet completed and will take another five years or more.

When asked what was most important to the success of their businesses, 53% said strategic business planning was most important, an answer Taylor found surprising.

"If you look at how unpredictable the industry has been, it seems having several 'what if' scenarios would be better than having a business plan," she said. "You can spend a lot of time and money on a plan that events can make obsolete in a day."

The survey also revealed that 30% of the survey respondents thought the cellular phone would emerge as the most popular technology among consumers by 2000.

While the Price Waterhouse survey is enlightening, such questionnaires often raise more questions then they answer, said Christine Heckart, an analyst and senior vice president of TeleChoice Inc.

"Part of what defines convergence is talking about what it isn't, and I'm not sure their definition encompassed that," Heckart said. "A few years ago people thought convergence would be some combination of cable and the telephone, where your cable operator would provide all telephony services. Now, what it's shaping up to be is some combination of telephony and data."

The executives listed the globalization of the business community, technological advancements and the telecom act as having the most significant effect on their businesses in the past three years.

A more interesting question would have been what will have significant effect on the next three years, said Heckart.

"I think the Internet and getting good people will be most important in the future," she said. "If you bleed and can't keep good people as the Internet grows and changes, then you can't keep up. Deregulation, to me, would be the third most significant factor."

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