MOBILE FORECASTING

Despite the disappointingly cool weather outside the Georgia World Congress Center in Atlanta, the climate within CTIA Wireless 2004 was consistently sunny and the extended forecast clearly optimistic. Surprisingly refreshing, too, was that such good news was not isolated to one or two spaces within the industry, but was instead widespread across wireless.

Consider the improved infrastructure climate that was solidified by Verizon's announcement to upgrade its network to EV-DO. Such a sizable investment of $692 million heralds a healthy change from the battering of this space during more inclement years. And regarding the core carriers' business, favorable conditions are likewise prevailing. Expecting a roomful of CEOs to agree on anything is usually ill advised, and yet during the third day's keynote session, six easily concurred on the topic of industry growth and health. Citing increased and consistent growth in the last three years in multiple earning categories, the panel, led by Stan Sigman of Cingular Wireless and Dennis Strigl of Verizon Wireless, noted positive conditions in a carrier climate where, according to Sigman, “We grew every line of our business.”

Perhaps the major difference from the recent GSM conference in Cannes and this CTIA conference in Atlanta is that the CTIA show was characterized not by a tense climate between carriers and handset manufacturers, but by the sheer uniformity and consistency of optimism within the environments of data, mobile entertainment, revenues and device improvements. Content providers are likewise hailing impressive growth of ringtones and subsequent revenue by citing that 10% of global music industry revenues currently comes from ringtones.

But can such an optimistic forecast be sustainable in a climate known previously for its occasionally erratic shifts and frequent inclemency? Based on this year's CTIA show, prevailing indicators predict that it can, especially when conditions are strong enough to validate a company going to the public markets for IPO growth financing rather than resorting to a sale exit strategy. (Consider the example of Seven.)

Gone, then, are the dark clouds of pessimism that typified last year's CTIA. Likewise evaporated is the fleeting excitement of some past years' technologies whose promises were mere aberrations. A new front seems to be pushing across the industry that is both healthy and sustainable because it is grounded in realistic and deployable projects adapted to market conditions.

Those of us who occupy the wireless space are finding ourselves within an environment that is more conducive to growth — and even some enjoyment. Pack accordingly.