Leader of the pack: Research shows CDMA passing GSM

A new study from Datacomm Research predicts that code division multiple access technology will usurp other digital wireless platforms and become the world market leader by early in the next century.

The study examines the technical, marketing, competitive and feature implications of IS-95 CDMA in North America, Asia and other regions. Its findings are based on years of carrier and vendor research and demographic comparisons of the regions and users that support different digital platforms.

Datacomm Research concludes that GSM's early lead in Western Europe and its adoption in North American markets indicate that the technology is solid and will continue to be effective, but that GSM is not strong enough to rival the platform of choice for next generation markets (see figure).

"Clearly you can't deny the fact that GSM is in 110 countries and has a large footprint, but certain countries are key and other countries don't add up as much," said Ira Brodsky, president of Datacomm Research. "I'm not predicting the demise of GSM by any means. I think, however, that CDMA has picked its countries very carefully. The GSM air interface is likely to plateau, and the CDMA air interface is likely to accelerate."

The study compares the performance of GSM and CDMA and the growth of CDMA in applications such as wireless local loop, mobile satellite and wireless data. It finds CDMA to be better designed for fixed and rural applications, characteristics that are crucial for both developing regions and areas where operators are looking to complement or even supplant wireline systems with wireless.

The study comes just after the European Telecommunications Standards Institute opted to issue a dual standard for next generation wireless networks that effectively incorporates parts of proposals from several technology camps.

Brodsky noted that, particularly in light of the ETSI agreement, a hybrid CDMA/GSM platform could improve the future position of GSM while bolstering CDMA's status.

"What could happen over the long term is that we may see GSM and CDMA succeeding together, but the news is that CDMA is being elevated to true competitive status with GSM," he said.