My kind of poker player

As a weekend poker player, I have to admit I admire C. Michael Armstrong-and not just for his bankroll. After the news broke that AT&T would buy cable giant TCI for $48 billion-give or take a billion-like many of you, I tried to zero in on the reality and the fluff of the deal.

Will it really change the face of telecommunications as we know it? Or is that kind of spending just the kind of stuff that would make a drunken sailor blush? Well, I read comments and quips from stock market mavens and telecom analysts until my eyes went blurry. It seems most don't like the deal.

But maybe that's because many of them also admit they don't quite seem to be able to figure out what C. Michael might be thinking. After mulling over this muddle for a while, it dawned on me why Wall Street and telecom experts are having such trouble. They just don't play poker enough.

Those of you who like a friendly game every once in a while know just what I mean. For those who think I'm off point, let's run through some of the wisdom my father taught me about how playing cards is a lot like doing business.

The first rule of poker is to know the stakes. My father had a corollary, of course, and that was to make sure I could afford to be in the game.

C. Michael, as the CEO of the largest telecom company on the planet, can certainly afford to be in the game. In fact, with the future of the multigazillion-dollar telecom market at stake, I'd argue that he can't afford not to be in the game.

My dad's second rule was to know your hand. He insisted I take the time to case the hand, and really see my cards and measure them for strength and weakness. He had a corollary here, too. "Don't rush," he said. "Bide your time and see if you can measure the other guys' hands, too."

His simple trick (which is not always so simple for me): "Watch their faces. Watch their hands. And, most important, watch what kind of money they're willing to put on the table."

To his credit, C. Michael is a chip off my dad's block. He knows that AT&T's hand may have been strong a couple of years ago (before the Telecom Act), but it has weakened ever since. In the past two years, C. Michael has seen his money spent on mergers, infrastructure and Internet acquisitions. At the same time, he's seen his own cash-cow long-distance stack dwindle, as price wars and under-the-radar competitors have changed the face of the long-haul business.

Too many players are still in the game-each with growing bankrolls-to stand pat with a so-so hand.

Dad's third and most masterful rule also makes C. Michael look like his kind of guy. After you know the stakes, the players, your cards, and theirs-and you think you have a winner-Dad's advice was, "Play 'em hard. And make 'em beat you."

Before plopping down $48 billion, C. Michael tried every way but Sunday to get less costly and higher-speed access to the customer at the end of the local loop. Two years after the telecom act was passed, AT&T has little to show for its attempts to negotiate with the local Bell companies, except that these opponents pooled their cards and money, ganged up on him and have become much more formidable competitors.

With his decision to buy TCI, C. Michael, in one flourish, has his "last mile." While pulling his trump card may not have come just the way Congress envisioned, in one stroke, C. Michael has made an end run behind Bell company lawyers, federal and local regulators and even tax men of every stripe. And, in the bargain, he's decided to play hard and make the rest beat him.

Sure, it's a lot of money. But I'm not sure that you can say C. Michael has really raised the stakes. With Internet start-ups like Yahoo! and Excite now sporting valuations in the billions of dollars (and they have no direct revenue from consumers), I'd argue that C. Michael has anted up the kind of money the game was always worth.

Will it work? I'll admit that it's too early for me to tell. But one thing I can say: After two years of big-stakes telecom players pussy-footing around at the table, C. Michael has made a game of it.

Yeah, it's a nail-biter. But that's poker.