IMPERFECT TEN

Telephony's year-end “10 to Watch” feature has morphed along with the evolution of the telecom industry and our own editorial sensibilities. When we launched the tradition in 1996, our list of notables ran the gamut: CEOs representing the RBOC, CLEC, independent, wireless, satellite and cable realms (because back then, everyone was a competitor); the director of the Network Management Forum (enmeshed in helping carriers navigate the network management and interoperability quagmire wrought by the ongoing M&A frenzy); and the requisite former TV network executive who had been lured to telecom by the promise of carriers' video distribution and programming plans.

The drill was pretty much the same year after year: Our editorial staff would gather in a conference room in mid-November (OK, early December) for a marathon meeting during which we would argue about how we each thought our nominees best represented the telecom milestones of the past year and the direction of things to come. That selection process produced some pretty compelling selections. We also misfired occasionally. (Note the infamous company-jumping trend of the late 1990s, during which some of our subjects got new jobs — or were shown the door — during our press runs.)

In the past two years we changed our tack somewhat, focusing more on the personalities of the individual subjects and expanding our scope to include representatives from technology developers as well as service providers. With that, we embraced the industry's volatility and attempted to identify the innovators — the unique leaders and thinkers who represented the future of this industry.

We're ending our 2002 publishing year with yet another rendering of our annual closer (which begins on page 20): In a year that innovation was present but not prominent, and entrepreneurialism was eclipsed by fiscal crisis, we decided to instead focus on 10 turning points to watch for — 10 events that will reshape the telecom industry.

Some of our selections involve the future direction of specific companies so considerable that their moves have the potential to redirect an entire industry. Others are about certain technologies, tools and applications that represent the evolution of communications and networking. Others concern the culmination — or eradication — of long-standing trends.

Although the current telecom situation could still be accurately categorized as dire, there are no make-or-break measurements for this industry. Given its breadth and the necessity of the services provided, telecom can only be gauged broadly: how big it is, how much it's worth, what level of innovation it attains. Still, how these 10 issues develop over the next year will go a long way in determining what's next for telecom.