Hong Kong phooey

This week the code division multiple access format for digital wireless took a major step forward in the U.S. with the launch of PrimeCo Personal Communications' system in 15 cities.

This launch was accompanied by the message that CDMA is well on its way to becoming a mature digital cellular standard on par with GSM.

My experience in Hong Kong suggests a different story.

For the past six months, promoters and detractors of CDMA have been urging me to examine the commercial CDMA system operated by Hutchison Telecom in Hong Kong. Supporters claimed its performance would put to rest criticism about CDMA. Detractors said the system wouldn't live up to its billing.

Skeptics such as Peter Bernstein, president of Infonautics Consulting, have said there is a shortage of CDMA phones. And, Bernstein said, whatever dual-mode phones that are out on the Hong Kong streets more often tune to the analog AMPS system on which the CDMA system is overlaid.

Separately, GSM engineers and other specialists have derided the Hong Kong system for an alleged lack of coverage in tunnels and subways, handoff problems and other quality snags.

Vendors touting CDMA-led by the technology's prime developer, Qualcomm, and flanked by Motorola, Lucent Technologies and the other members of the CDMA Development Group-have denied the reported problems. Qualcomm claims coverage is territorywide and capacity is six times that of analog.

From both sides, the litany was the same: Go to Hong Kong, see for yourself, talk to Hutchison and set the record straight. But it didn't turn out to be quite that simple.

"Hutchison Telecom is reluctant to meet with the press at this point in time," said a spokesman for the CDMA Development Group, with whom we had been working for three weeks in advance. Attempts to use the Hutchison system and judge the outcome firsthand were to no avail.

So what we're left with is a lot of vendor hype about CDMA. This is the same group that told us four years ago that CDMA would provide 20 times more capacity than AMPS, then modified it to 10, and now says six. This is the same group that said CDMA was only 12 months behind GSM.

In essence, those directly involved with building and operating the CDMA system that was to showcase the validity of the technology were not willing to stand up and vouch for it.

An executive in Asia for Qualcomm, the prime developer of CDMA technology, excoriated the press for what he felt was unfair coverage of CDMA. He wanted to know why Telephony and others have given broad coverage to American Personal Communications' launch of GSM yet all but ignored the reported 47,000 CDMA subscribers in Hong Kong.

The answer is simple: APC's launch represented the U.S. introduction of an established technology used by millions in Europe and Asia. Hong Kong's 47,000 CDMA subscribers represent less than 5% of cellular phone users in the territory and barely less than 1% of the total population.

This, in one of the most mobile-savvy markets in the world. The two situations are not comparable.

There is little doubt that CDMA is a sound technology. It would not be getting serious attention from carriers if it weren't. What I challenge is an apparent campaign by some vendors to portray the format as having reached a level comparable to that of GSM.

Despite the progress that has been made with the format, CDMA still lacks the customer base, the ease of compatibility and the ongoing development that come out of the shared knowledge of more than 100 GSM MoU members.

Hong Kong Telecom CSL, which did meet with us last week, described an intelligent underlay/overlay signal technique that will enable the carrier to boost capacity on its 320,000 subscriber system to 500,000 by next year. CSL has applied for a patent on home-grown technique and is seeking to license it to its primary supplier, Nokia.

For every step forward that CDMA takes, GSM maintains-or widens-its lead. CDMA is still an underdeveloped technology, and the reticence of Hutchison to vouch for it is evidence of that.

We congratulate PrimeCo and Centennial on their U.S. launches and wish them the same success with CDMA as their competitors have had with GSM. Judging from my Hong Kong experience, they have a long way to go.