Hitchhiker's guide to wireless

I just returned from a backpacking trip where I was hundreds of miles from the nearest PC or frame relay access device.

The escape was great! It relaxed me and cleared my head. That is, until I started catching up on the news. My breath caught in my throat when I read one story that told me, "Wireless Gets REAL: New Standards, Partnerships Flourish." Other news bulletins were just as bullish on the future of wireless networking.

Had the world really changed that much while I was lost in the woods for two weeks? I felt like someone in a "Twilight Zone" episode. Maybe I had been gone for a year--or more--and just didn't know it.

Then an even more horrific idea gripped my brain: That peaceful, brain-renewing trip into the woods might have been my last escape from PCs. Henceforth, laptops will always be with me. I knew I should've taken pictures.

The "Wireless One-Two Punch" of summer '97 goes like this:

Punch One. Dozens of wireless local area network hardware and software vendors--after years of fussing at one another--have put aside differences and agreed on a technical standard. The new IEEE 802.11 lays out the technical rules for linking PCs to printers, servers and one another without cabling. The 802.11 standard even sets rules for enabling different wireless LAN technologies--spread spectrum and microwave--from different manufacturers to link to each other. So 802.11 should mean more products, better features, smarter support staffers and lower prices.

Punch Two. Things are just as rosy for wireless wide area networks. Intel Corp. has helped form a group to make wireless WANs as plug-and-play as cellular phones. Even better, your laptop might be your PC and phone. The group, called the Mobile Data Initiative, also boasts other multibillion-dollar players--RHCs, including Pacific Bell and BellSouth; laptop makers, including Compaq and Toshiba; and cellular phone giants, including Nokia and Ericsson.

At first blush, these two items seemed to mark a turning point in the maturing of wireless. But on reflection, I'm afraid the whole wireless community continues to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. These companies, rather than pushing new visions, are just spinning the same old wheels.

Here's my take:

Wireless LANs. The 802.11 standard took seven years to reach. That's a long time in any industry, let alone one that measures versions in "Web time." It's so long, in fact, that even experts say the just-adopted standard may already be obsolete. 802.11 covers only 1 to 2 Mb/s speeds. Full Ethernet (10 Mb/s) technologies will be out of the lab within a year, experts say. But these faster speeds won't have to apply to the current standard.

So a year from now, wireless LANs will have a handful of savvy companies making cutting-edge products for cutting-edge information technology managers. The downside will be little choice and big price tags. Sounds a lot like what we have now, doesn't it?

Wireless WANs. This Intel-sponsored MDI plan is limited in scope. It applies to only one flavor of PCS technology--GSM. So, as for "global wireless," it's a bit unclear to me how global this could be when currently-in-use wireless WAN data networks such as cellular digital packet data, RAM Mobile Data and Ardis aren't even invited to join.

As for today, we're talking about a subset of the available wireless WAN market. Worst of all, PR agents proudly assert, "GSM alliance formed to compete with national wireless carriers." This kind of family fighting over small markets is what stalled wireless LANs for almost a decade, isn't it? It's what has kept nationwide wireless grounded, hasn't it? How often do these lessons have to be learned?

When it comes to wireless, the unfortunate route is this: Review the facts, then review the products. Before wireless makes a real difference in my life, vendors have to make a difference in wireless--how it's used, why it's used, how much it costs. Standards and consortia are only a first step. Despite tactical progress, wireless ventures still lack vision. In fact, even with these recent steps forward, the wireless industry still seems lost in the woods.