Guided by misdirection

Most good jokes, like good magic, depend heavily on misdirection - creating wonderment, disbelief or humor by diverting audience attention. The recently concluded Telecom 99 extravaganza in Geneva, Switzerland, was a good example of misdirection. It amplified the good, the bad and the ugly of the communications world.

But the 3000 accredited members of the press didn't get it. They thought they were at a technology show. They were only partially correct. With the industry's guidance, they went looking for the "revolution" story they had been promised in the pre-show hype and never found it.

If this was not really a technology show, what was it? What revolution was on display?

Telecom 99 was a snapshot of the "value revolution" being driven by the speed of technological innovation. It is a revolution where value and every link in the chain are being redefined at Internet speed. Technology has overthrown a century-old communications value chain premised on extracting high margins from the rationing of interaction with and access to scarce information resources - including humans.

The Internet, combined with other rapid technology changes and global competition, has turned that value system on its head. There are too many service providers and too many equipment vendors. Everyone's loss leader is what was, and may still be believed to be, someone else's sustainable value proposition. In this context, the extraordinary premiums given .com companies, and the supplier chain that enables them to be perceived as the leaders in leveraging the "new value," almost make sense.

But we are at the bottom of the on ramp of the value revolution. Nobody knows where there is. Yet, we believe that whoever gets there first wins. This is good. It drives the engines of innovation and entrepreneurism.

Because we are so early in the revolution, we constantly gaze upon it indirectly. We can't handle the truth. We're afraid of being disclosed as impostors. We fear being leap-frogged or dis-intermediated. Concluding that there was misdirection at Telecom 99 does not imply that it was intentional, though it kept almost all the participants within their respective comfort zones.

However, in many booths, you could hear the voices of revolution. There was purposeful discussion on subjects such as giving away APIs so third parties could program telecom networks to meet user needs and create new markets, speeding up the standards process and jettisoning those that don't make sense and even making service interoperability an industry priority.

What is the revolution? The telecom industry is awakening to the fact that it can't do it alone. People don't want one-stop shopping; they want one-stop billing based on their unique choices. This is a divine revelation. It is counter-cultural, especially the culture of M&A based on facilities ownership translating into customer ownership.

Don't get me wrong, differentiated value based mostly on technology was not relegated to polite cocktail conversation off the show floor. ATM vs. IP battles linger. The struggle over wireless device operating systems are intense. The business case for 3G wireless is up in the air.

If Telecom 2003 is not to become a bad joke, the organizers need to work on the punch line. The ITU and the industry need to realize it is about the public. To not understand this is be misguided. It also will take less than four years to prove it is financially lethal. Leave misdirection to the comedians.