GSM in the new millennium: Wireless forecast to grow significantly in 21st century

On the evidence of the 1998 GSM World Congress last week in Cannes, the international wireless community is nothing if not bullish about its future.

Asked for estimates of how the market would develop, the majority of the 3500 delegates forecast that wireless penetration rates in developed countries would exceed wireline rates by 2010. A substantial percentage of the participants predicted that in some locations, cellular penetration could reach more than 100%.

Some panelists maintained that fixed/mobile integration was the way ahead for GSM. Others, such as Aerial Communications President and CEO Don Warkentin, suggested that wireless should be the only phone required in the next century. Warkentin argued that the big opportunity for wireless operators was to attack the "wireline usage pie." In the U.S., wireless minutes-which currently account for a mere 3% of total telephony traffic-will rise to 25% by 2010, he said.

But if wireless is getting bigger, as the Cannes audience heard, it's also changing direction. A number of exhibitors were intent on taking technology off the streets and putting it into buildings. For example, Ericsson debuted a GSM home cordless telephony system that allows subscribers to be reached via the public network when in cordless coverage range and via the GSM network when out of cordless range.

For business enterprises, Motorola unveiled what it claims is the world's first dedicated in-building GSM system, dubbed the M-Cellaccess. Company officials said the system can be installed in 15 minutes on average, and because the cell radius is typically less than 100 meters, it can provide network operators with precise location details and therefore the basis for differential billing.

Last year began with 32 million GSM customers on 191 networks in 105 territories, according to Adriana Nugter, chairman of the GSM Memorandum of Understanding Association. It ended with 70 million customers on 235 networks in 110 countries.

A GSM operator somewhere will sign up the technology's 100 millionth subscriber this year, and 265 million GSM users, representing 50% of the total global cellular market, will have been signed up by 2001, Nugter said.

Comverse Network Systems introduced a set of Mobile Unified Messaging applications that run on its Access NP and Trilogue Infinity enhanced services platforms. The smart phone-based services integrate voice, fax and e-mail messages for simpler access.

Nokia unveiled the Nokia Transit mobile switching center, which acts as a gateway between fixed and mobile GSM networks by processing all inter-element signaling. The vendor also introduced an intelligent frequency-hopping solution for boosting capacity.

AirNet Communications won a GSM World Award for best technical innovation for its AirSite GSM infrastructure scheme.

Teleglobe announced it is providing signaling conversion services supporting global roaming to more than 75 GSM network operators, representing 89% of the GSM subscriber base.