Give up the goods

The sporadic, seemingly random evolution of wireless never ceases to amaze and confuse. Nowhere else in the communications industry is there a technology realm so difficult to foretell.

There was the analog-to-digital migration: Which technology format would reign supreme, forcing less fortunate contenders into obscurity? Then the data debate: Was it a lack of apps or airlink constraints that stifled Internet mobility? There was the unexpected rise - and fall - of wireless local loop hope: Would it ascend to the access throne?

Several years later, we still have no concise answers. Multiple digital approaches have flourished on what now appears to be a march toward next generation convergence. The analog data drive didn't go far, but digital brought new hope. And while traditional WLL remains relegated to developing regions, its broadband wireless access relation appears poised for access acceptance.

Or so it would seem. Somewhere within its developmental depths, the broadband wireless equipment community seems to be confronting an obstacle to mass production. Dozens of companies claim to be in active development, but carriers seeking large supplies are coming up short. In an effort to appease investors who want to see their money in action, spectrum holders are tapping multiple vendors to cobble together a test bed that can demonstrate their network intentions.

Clues to the equipment dearth can be seen in the lack of activity within some of the biggest networking outfits. Nortel Networks took what appeared to be an early lead in broadband wireless with its acquisition of Broadband Networks Inc. and bagged some sweet business from Teligent early on. It has been relatively quiet ever since. Lucent Technologies answered by acquiring a manufacturing unit of Hewlett-Packard. That got Winstar's attention and a big contract, but Lucent still relies on OEMs to fill in the gaps in its systems. Cisco Systems joined Motorola to buy a Bosch division, renamed it and kept it quiet from that point on.

So why have these systems developers - the very same ones that are exceedingly vocal about their abilities to answer so many other networking needs - become mum on the subject of broadband wireless?

Several theories: Maybe broadband wireless is such a competitive and potentially lucrative technology niche that all development efforts are being more closely guarded than other, less proprietary areas. Or, given the abundance of start-ups focusing on specialized radios, maybe the big networking vendors have opted to act as quiet technology incubators and are waiting to strike - in the form of acquisition - until the systems coming out of those outfits are absolutely ready to sell.

Another possibility is that these vendors have temporarily turned their attention away from opportunities in the higher broadband frequencies - LMDS in the U.S., LMCS in Canada, other spectral ranges all over the world - in light of renewed interest in lower-frequency MMDS by the likes of MCI WorldCom and Sprint. Perhaps they discovered that MMDS equipment has a faster development cycle and more sales promise than network gear for the higher reaches.

Until the equipment developers in question come forward with clear answers, it can be fairly speculated that premature hype about broadband wireless as an access alternative overtook the actual potential of the technology at this point in its development. It certainly wouldn't be the first time the promise of wireless led to clouded judgement.