4G? More like 6G

Back in the day, the wireless industry wasn't too concerned about excessive spending, whether it was to build and expand the networks that unwired the world or to market the services they sold on the networks that unwired the world.

Through a series of generational upgrades, the wireless industry kept on spending, though in a smaller way, because those upgrades were most often not-too-troublesome transitions upward within the same technology family.

Yet, in the last few years, even as many wireless carriers were completing their 3G upgrades, we began to witness a different sort of wireless industry in action — one that was far more sensitive to decreases in average revenue per user and increases in customer churn than the wireless industry of previous decades. Suddenly, the game was no longer which company could spend the most money and make it work by blasting revenue though the roof; it was which company could save the most money while subscriber additions slowed and maintain stability by keeping current customers.

To an industry that has just gotten used to that new reality, the journey to 4G is going to be a difficult one. All this talk of Mobile WiMAX, long-term evolution and ultra mobile broadband, or UMB, is lining up like so many dollar signs on the horizon that mobile network operators probably can't seeing anything else at this point. The rewards of 4G are potentially great and absolutely necessary (though we can certainly argue about how soon) to support the future usage patterns of a truly mobile society. But financially, and in terms of the heavy network lifting that will need to be done, it's going to feel like we're going from 3G to 6G, rather than just one more rung up the ladder.

The job ahead is daunting, and as the CTIA's Wireless 2007 trade show convenes this week in Orlando, carriers will be well into doing their research in order to make informed decisions about 4G. And they should reserve several pages in their notebooks for the aforementioned UMB — the not-so-easy, potential next step for CDMA operators trying to put together 4G network road maps. As Kevin Fitchard notes in his cover story on page 38, UMB's future is far from certain.

Kevin also looks at the efforts of cable TV companies to integrate wireless service into their offerings on page 8. Elsewhere in this issue — on pages 16, 18 and 21 — you'll find coverage of the VON trade show. And, on page 18, Ed Gubbins looks at consolidation in the video encoder business.

Enjoy Wireless 2007 — and be sure to tell us if it brings you any closer to 4G.