3G future on trial: Industry grapples with how to get there

While wireless carriers test their specific ideas of 3G technology, the industry questions how and when networks can handle increased data speeds and the demand that will follow. As carriers strive toward the same goal, each has its own technological path to follow. At the same time, third generation technology is emerging in a variety of flavors, said Naqi Jaffery, an analyst with Dataquest.

Sprint PCS and Lucent Technologies said last week they will begin testing 3G CDMA wireless technology in the first half of 2000. The trial should verify the performance of Sprint's 3G 1X-radio transmission technology (3G1XRTT).

"We are setting up the technology trial as the next evolutionary step in [next generation] progress," said Oliver Valente, vice president of technology and advanced systems development for Sprint PCS. "Our main driver is to increase data speeds by tenfold." The company also expects the technology to double voice capacity.

Sprint's current system offers data rates of 14.4 kb/s; however, it plans to advance to 144 kb/s during the first phase of next generation technology. Sprint also plans to hold trials with Motorola and Nortel Networks. Valente expects his company's next generation technology to be deployed in 2001, with the first and second phases entering the marketplace in 2005.

Sprint's 3G1XRTT is considered 2.5G technology, as is general packet radio services (GPRS) and enhanced data rates for GSM evolution (EDGE). While it still is set to produce high data rates, it does not require the additional spectrum that 3G most likely will require, Jaffery said.

"As far as Europe and North America are concerned, keep in mind that 3G services will take up more bandwidth than existing data services. We already have a capacity problem," he said.

Both Sprint and AT&T reportedly face capacity issues, but as they work to resolve them, both continue offering higher bandwidth-demanding data services in an effort to remain competitive.

"While implementing 2.5G with existing technology will take off primarily because there is demand for the services and for competitive reasons, 3G will essentially require additional spectrum allocations," Jaffery said. "If the FCC wants the U.S. to be competitive, it should allocate additional spectrum as expediently as possible."

After GSM operators implement GPRS, Sprint implements 3G1XRTT and AT&T implements EDGE, one might wonder why carriers would decide to invest in any other advanced technology in the future, he added.

If the FCC mandates spectrum specifically for 3G, perhaps carriers would continue upgrading the technology, Jaffery said. However, he estimated that there is about a 60% chance the commission will move in this direction.

Whether the FCC contributes to 3G's progression or not, Jaffery expects carriers to deploy service between 2003 and 2004.