Future speak

The telecom industry, or at least some of it, will be attending TelecomNext in Las Vegas this week. Whether you think it will be a large, energetic and positive contingent or a small, moody and grumbling group might depend on whether you are a USTelecom-type or a Telecommunications Industry Association-type, but whatever your allegiance, don't let it cloud your view of what's really going on at this event — or more accurately, around this event.

The industry is morphing into a top tier of a few national monoliths that will offer every kind of service over their networks, control most of the service spending in this country and have the most influence over the direction that most vendors take with their technologies (thereby also deciding which vendors will make the most comfortable living).

Some people are tempted to call it the return of AT&T (including me, and since AT&T proposed to acquire BellSouth two weeks ago, I already have), but maybe it's not so much a return as a remix, re-imagining and extrapolation of the old AT&T. (For a more visual metaphor, see the 1993 version of baseball slugger Barry Bonds, then look at the 2001 version. Now imagine three of the latter standing side by side.) It's the designer steroids version built for competition. Or, built to kill the competition.

It has been barely five months since Telephony ran a cover story entitled “The Future and BellSouth” (Oct. 24, 2005). In retrospect, it seems to be just one more illustration of a knack for ironic timing that our magazine has shown over the years. Still, in that story, we questioned how a mostly regionally focused company could continue to hold onto its Bell identity and thrive competitively. The answer, which we may have known but came more quickly than most of us thought: It can't.

In our special report this week, we take a look at how the AT&T and BellSouth merger will come together, how it will affect the companies involved and the rest of the industry. That report starts on page 14, with an exhaustive analysis from Carol Wilson and Vince Vittore. On page 16, you start to find out what the deal will mean for vendors, and don't miss our eulogy to the BellSouth brand on page 19. Also, be sure to check out our Web site, www.telephonyonline.com, for the stories we wrote in the immediate wake of the deal announcement on March 5, as well as an online exclusive story examining the implications of the merger for the broadband consumer premises equipment market.

And for those of who still want to know what we think about TelecomNext, Vince Vittore tells you in his opinion column on page 28. But again, don't get too hung up about which trade show is better than the other. The rich conference and expo schedule we have enjoyed in the telecom industry for many years was borne of the era of the seven Baby Bells, and it got more interesting after competition and deregulation began to take hold. With two or three companies pulling the strings — and holding all of the purse strings — there may not be much reason for all of us to leave home and get together so often.

So, if nothing else, maybe we can call the AT&T/BellSouth merger a deal that our spouses will love… Well, maybe not.