The future is now

A few years ago, I had the privilege of penning a column in this space: “Youth are the present.” The premise of that article is true now more than ever: Young people are harbingers for future network requirements, and it is important to stay attuned to their desires.

This column could be considered a corollary to the previous one because that future is now. The functionality of a Dick Tracy wristwatch, for example, which was only a vision when I was a kid (and when my parents were kids in the 1930s), has finally become an everyday accessory for today's youth. Traditional wristwatch sales on the other hand — as Rob Riordan of Nsight Telservices pointed out at the 2007 IP Possibilities conference in April — have been declining at an 8% annual rate in recent years (like telco access lines), thanks in part to the disruptive technology known as the cell phone with its own accurate timepiece feature.

Although we are not quite living in the fully automated society promised by '60s television shows like “The Jetsons,” there are a number of trends — youthful and otherwise — indicating we are on the cusp of major breakthroughs.

First, broadband is here to stay, as evidenced by penetration rates expected to be near 60% of households by the end of the year. According to Parks Associates, some one-third of these broadband homes are networked homes. Many of those without broadband at home use it at work, while the rest of the broadband holdouts look for compelling applications.

Second, with the rise of user-generated content and social media sites, content is being generated for every niche and demographic. This peer-to-peer model, where virtually anyone can be a content producer, generates much more traffic than the traditional one-to-many model of broadcasting.

And new devices such as Nintendo Wii, which connect directly to the Internet and exploit the always-on nature of broadband, are spurring growth. Likewise for other gaming consoles, broadband-enabled PDAs and remotely managed and viewed home security cameras.

One of the most exiting opportunities is where broadband and home networking combine to unleash potential that people have been trying to tap for decades, such as energy management for remotely adjusting thermostats. Affordable sensors, combined with wireless networking and broadband, have made this a reality.

At home, health care is another area where broadband has the potential to not only save money ($12 billion annually by one estimate), but also improve quality of life by extending the independent lifestyles of the elderly.

It is up to the independent telcos to lead their communities and help customers discover existing and new broadband applications. Some independent telco leaders have suggested the telco be the expert their customers look to for advice on technology. This is good advice for a new era in which the future is now.

Ken Pyle is co-founder of Viodi LLC and is managing editor of the Viodi View.