Farewell to the forecast

Perhaps any safe predictions for the industry's future went out the window way back in the mid-1990s, but the rampant deal-making and re-strategizing of recent months makes the last decade's M&A binge look like an exercise in patience by comparison. The latest acquisition to alter the landscape yet again was last week's bid by Level 3 Communications to acquire Broadwing. Editor-at-Large Carol Wilson's story on the matchup is on page 8. It was a deal that ultimately surprised very few of us, yet it seems to thrust Level 3 into an interesting position — it has consolidated much of the wholesale market to give itself an edge there, while also making itself a more viable option for enterprise customers wanting a diversity of service providers.

That enterprise market diversity is a trend we've covered in the past, but Level 3's latest deal begs a question: If having only one or two choices (AT&T or Verizon) of primary service providers isn't enough, how many choices do enterprises want for their secondary service provider? Level 3 is hinting that its acquisition binge is finished for a while, but if it isn't, are we heading for a universe of three choices, rather than two, and where's the difference in that? Furthermore, is Level 3 itself now ripe for to be acquired?

It's not just consolidation that's making it hard to determine what will happen next in this industry. Technology decisions and rumors of decisions are coming at us like big, loopy curveballs — they should be easy to hit, but they are really messing with our timing. First, Sprint committed to Mobile WiMAX this summer in a decision that may have rejuvenated an entire ecosystem that had been running on hype fumes. Now, several analysts are wondering if AT&T is about to change its attitude about its fiber upgrade and go with a mix of FTTP along with its existing FTTN strategy, rather than pursuing only the latter. Read the story on page 10 by Senior Writer Ed Gubbins for more on that.

Maybe it wouldn't be such a strange move by a large telco that sees fit to use a variety of solutions to reach different customer environments, but if that decision is coming, when will it happen? AT&T was due to report earnings last Friday after this issue went to press, so maybe we already know the answer, but if not, how soon must AT&T make this decision to stay on track with its broadband upgrade?

Elsewhere in this issue, on page 13, Senior Editor Kevin Fitchard looks at how two of the smaller winners in the Advanced Wireless Services spectrum auction are likely to exploit their new licenses. Also, Senior Editor Tim McElligott examines how policy management capabilities can offer a safe, secure middleground in the debate over whether children should be able to use their mobile phones while in school (page 18).

And, meanwhile, if you have somehow managed to put together a reliable forecast for the telecom industry's future, can you please let the rest of us know?