Down and out in

The year's most anticipated show surely won't break any records, but are things really that bad?

After all the layoffs, all the missed earnings reports, all the bankruptcies and dire predictions — and, yes, all the media hype — the true measure of telecom's health is almost upon us.

That metric, of course, is Supercomm, and perhaps never in the history of the show has the industry anticipated the event with such a palpable juxtaposition of excitement, curiosity and — in many cases — trepidation.

Excitement because Supercomm is still the reigning champ of telecom venues, and because despite what anyone says about the economy, the inexorable demand for services — enhanced, bundled, broadband, wireless, or otherwise — is never going to go away.

Curiosity because there will almost surely be fewer attendees, exhibitors and announcements than in happier times, and because some players will be conspicuously absent from the show floor.

Trepidation because carrier spending is down, companies are still tightening their belts, and no one quite knows whether we've hit bottom yet.

Like last year, the 2001 Supercomm Preview focuses on what technologies carriers hope to find at the show. Unlike last year, however, the more somber tone of this special report reflects the turmoil and uncertainty of the current market.

It isn't all doom and gloom. After all, last month the Telecommunications Industry Association reported that U.S. sales of telecom equipment reached $100.3 billion in 2000, which was up almost 21% from 1999. Equipment sales may have slowed more noticeably since then but certainly not to a standstill.

Some carriers, such as long-haul fiber operators, are actually thriving in today's market because they're landing enormously profitable deals from vendors eager to make a sale. They won't be disappointed with the number of optical equipment manufacturers ready to vie for their attention at Supercomm.

But others — notably the competitive carrier market, which includes the almost pariah-like data CLECs, BLECs and fixed-wireless carriers — are madly scrambling to alter business models and change negative industry perceptions. They need technology solutions and partnerships that will help them prove to their shareholders that profits are growing — not just their subscriber base.

It undoubtedly will be an altered cast of players with a different set of priorities that will descend on Atlanta next month. And because service providers will be searching for solutions that help them grow their businesses, the burden is on vendors to prove that their products improve the bottom line.