So many decisions

This year's Universal Wireless Communications Consortium Global Summit clearly reflected much of the turmoil TDMA operators are experiencing.

When AT&T Wireless announced plans in December to deploy a GSM/GPRS network alongside its TDMA network, it caused a tidal wave of confusion among the TDMA community. While AT&T Wireless' affiliates and its partner in Canada, Rogers Cantel, announced plans to make the same deployments, Cingular Wireless and Latin American operators have been left grappling with new technology decisions.

The theme of this year's show was “TDMA… GSM… EDGE… UMTS, Multiple Options for 3G Success.” But many Latin American operators opted to stay home, perhaps because May 1 was a holiday in Latin America but primarily because they are meeting with their vendors to determine the best technology path, said Larry Wood, director of market strategies and industry relations with Ericsson Radio Systems.

While AT&T Wireless and its affiliates have the luxury of deploying GSM in their mostly vacant 1900 MHz spectrum alongside their TDMA 850 MHz systems, many Latin American carriers only operate TDMA networks at 850 MHz. They either have to wait for 3G EDGE technology — the timeline of which likely will be extended considerably because AT&T Wireless is focusing on GPRS — or rip out their TDMA networks and opt for GSM/GPRS technology or CDMA 1X. Either decision will be painful.

“To be blunt, [TDMA and GSM] are two different standards,” Paul Mankiewich, vice president and chief technology officer for wireless networks at Lucent Technologies, told the UWCC audience. “Carriers have to migrate a TDMA radio to a GSM radio…. They need to do the planning right. They need to stop growing their TDMA networks and make the cut all at once. Don't do it piecemeal. It's more difficult.”

While vendors such as Ericsson, Motorola and Nokia have announced their commitments to GSM at 850 MHz, carriers are trying to determine the cost and whether vendors are committed to volumes of phones at that frequency.

Likewise, considerable costs are associated with a move to CDMA 1X, which Cingular is considering.

“We're still debating technologies,” William Clift, Cingular's chief technology officer, recently told Telephony. “We have a direction in mind, but we want to be sure the parent companies are on board. There are a lot of financial considerations.”

The CDMA Development Group is commissioning a white paper from The Shosteck Group analyzing migration strategies from TDMA to CDMA 1X and GSM.

“The issues are complex,” the Shosteck Group said in a statement. “Technically feasible migration paths tell only a portion of the story. More important are the issues of cost efficiencies.”

AT&T Wireless and Cingular reiterated their commitment to EDGE, although the technology seems to lack momentum in Europe, where carriers are focusing on the steep buildout costs of UMTS networks. EDGE will provide 3G data speeds while increasing network capacity, said Roderick Nelson, CTO with AT&T Wireless.

“We've always said that, on the TDMA side, EDGE is the right path,” said Dave Williams, vice president of strategic relations with Cingular. “It's a no-brainer. It gives us a more efficient way to do GPRS.”

Mankiewich said U.S. GSM operators might have to deploy EDGE if carriers can't get the spectrum they need for more bandwidth-intensive UMTS services. Much of the spectrum mobile operators plan to use for 3G services is encumbered by the Department of Defense and could be tied up for years.

Alan Hadden, president of the GSM Suppliers Association, said his organization needs to promote EDGE better in Europe. The GSA and UWCC signed a memorandum of understanding last week to cooperate to globalize and standardize EDGE and UMTS technologies.

“EDGE is in danger of being a Cinderella, but it doesn't have to be,” Hadden said. “I do think we need to look at it more deeply.”