Could've, should've, would've

It certainly seems like the cable TV companies know what they must do to survive rising competitive waters. We hear them talk about how much they will need to spend to upgrade their legacy systems. We hear them talk about improving network reliability and customer service.

To look at some of things that have happened-or not happened-over the last 10 months, you have to wonder exactly how they are going to accomplish any of this.

At the beginning of 1996, it seemed that many cable TV operators were ready to lay out the billions of dollars required to upgrade their networks. However, a handful of the cable TV industry's traditional suppliers have admitted in recent weeks that equipment spending by network operators was more sluggish during the first half of 1996 than they expected. A couple have also hinted that the second half won't turn out much better.

The cable TV industry will not be able to make good on promises of improved reliability-let alone new services-until it actually starts spending money on Sonet, network management and testing. And all the talk about improved customer service apparently hasn't convinced too many people. After telling my own cable TV horror story last month (Telephony, Sept. 9, page 36), dozens of people called or wrote me to tell me of similar experiences they have had.

With the cable TV companies, there seems to be a lot of could have/should have/would have. They could have invested in direct broadcast satellite systems years ago. Now these systems are the most immediate threat to their customer bases (Three people I talked to after last month's column told me they ended their cable customer service problems by canceling their service and calling on DirecTV).

They should have started to invest in network management and new architectures earlier. Now some of their stock prices are so low that spending more, although necessary, will only make that hole deeper.

They would have been more successful if they had not been re-regulated. Well, everyone has to deal with regulatory changes these days. Unfortunately, when cable re-regulation came in 1992, most companies lacked the focus to begin investing in their systems.

Some cable TV companies still think their entrepreneurial spirit will save them. Well, movement is the essence of the entrepreneur, and the cable TV companies seem stuck.

Some people have speculated that Time Warner, after freezing cable telephony plans, may sell its franchises outright to dump debt. Other cable TV companies may also look at this option, but an important question must be answered first: Who would want to buy businesses that have balked at most chances to invest in their futures?