Chance or choice?

Digital subscriber line technology is proven. It's been in trials for years, it's been deployed commercially in select markets and more than 40 vendors are selling products. New developments like splitterless DSL make rolling out services less complicated and costly, but the only thing that has really moved on DSL is the due date for mass deployment. So what's the holdup? It may be a fundamental fact: Change is scary.

No doubt telcos are complacent with the way they get their revenues. They are obsessed with defending their empires from competition. And some say the telcos are inherently "anti-change." But I can't be that harsh. I feel their pain. Telcos have a lot at stake. They didn't get where they are by taking tremendous risks, and DSL requires hard planning and harder work.

Telcos have to upgrade their central office racks and consider power, capacity, interoperability and even infrastructure. Granted, that's something private networks have had to worry about for years, but DSL is messier still, with new flavors rolling out almost every month. And formerly benign devices like modems become noisy interlopers on DSL transmission lines.

With that said, how could a new technology like DSL be a top priority for telcos? It's no surprise that mavericks like the computer companies-the movers and shakers of technology-have to get the ball rolling. Microsoft, Intel, and Compaq are putting their collective weight behind a standards movement for interoperable DSL systems. And it's just their style to fill a PC with features regardless of whether people will use them. It's not that different from packing new PCs full of 56K modems, universal serial bus interfaces or Ethernet ports before those features were deployable.

But it seems the telcos are once again taking the easy way out.

Letting the computer companies seed the market and pack DSL technology into consumers' PCs and operating systems takes a burden off the telcos. Once DSL is at the user end, that's less cost for telcos to consider and that much easier to roll out. Hopefully, it'll also motivate them to build up their high-speed data networks. What's more, if the telcos don't offer DSL, cable operators will be right there with an alternative.

DSL has the support from the big guys, and customers want it. The telcos have to take a chance because now they have no choice.