BUBBLE TALK

If you had any money in wireless industry stocks before Nov. 24, 2003, you probably found it very hard to concentrate on anything but the two little voices that were arguing in your head. The little voices weren't telling you “Blow stuff up” or “Go ahead, watch the Paris Hilton video.” One was growling “Buy, you wuss,” and the other was snapping “Sell, you idiot!” In the days before wireless number portability began in November, it was anyone's guess how P-Day would affect wireless stocks — some people saw an industry pulling out of economic doldrums and ready for a new phase of growth, while others saw only a staggering industry that wasn't ready for newly empowered customers. But, if you sold, you're probably regretting it right now, as wireless stocks have been surging. This was especially true last week, as the industry was buoyed by positive outlooks from Nextel Communications and other firms, as well as a Nasdaq index on a positive streak. Even complaints about portability glitches don't seem to have phased the market. Yet, you have to wonder if the current exuberance is a bubble of optimism before the real first-quarter numbers come out. Only then will we get our first clear picture of portability's effect on subscriber additions and losses, and some idea of which little voice might have been right.