THE BROADBAND HOUSEHOLD

Mom, Dad, 2.2 kids, a dog and a broadband connection--that''s the American household of the future. According to new data from Jupiter Research, broadband will be in 41% of all online households by 2006, up from 9% in 2001.

By the end of the year, Jupiter projects the number of broadband households will hit the 10 million mark. And while the number of dial-up consumers will remain level, cable modem, DSL, satellite and fixed wireless installs will skyrocket.

Jupiter Media Metrix 21 Astor Place New York, NY 10003 212 780 6060 917 534 6800 fax www.jmm.com

The only bad news is for cable. Its initial lead of 72% market share in 2000 is expected to fall to 54% by 2006, according to Jupiter. On the other hand, quintupling your customer base in six years is nothing to complain about.

FIGURE 1 Dial-up versus Broadband households in the U.S. through 2006 (in millions)
	Broadband	Dial-up
1999	1.8	43.6
2000	5.2	51.5
2001	10.0	52.8
2002	15.4	52.8
2003	20.6	52.8
2004	25.7	52.2
2005	30.7	51.5
2006	35.1	51.2

Source: Jupiter Research

FIGURE 2 Technology versus technology in U.S. broadband households through 2006 (in millions)
	Cable	DSL	Satellite	Fixed Wireless
1999	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
2000	3.8	1.4	0.1	0.0
2001	6.6	2.8	0.3	0.2
2002	9.7	4.9	0.5	0.4
2003	12.3	7.0	0.6	0.6
2004	14.8	9.3	0.8	0.9
2005	17.0	11.8	0.8	1.1
2006	18.8	14.0	0.9	1.4

Source: Jupiter Research

 

Technology Market share 2001 vs. 2006
	2001	2006
Dial-up	84.1%	59.3%
DSL	4.7%	16.5%
Cable	10.5%	21.8%
Satellite	0.4%	1.0%
Fixed Wireless	0.3%	1.4%
Source: Jupiter Research

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All Those Pipes
New Paradigm Research Group performed an interesting number-crunching exercise in its most recent study, The Broadband Last Mile Report. The group calculated the total amount of capacity in the nation''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''s broadband and narrowband access pipes.

New Paradigm Research Group 12 South Michigan Avenue, 5th Floor Chicago, IL 60603 (312) 980-7848/Fax: (312) 980-4992 Order publications: (312) 980-4796 Online orders www.nprg.com ONLINE EXCLUSIVE Broadband Last Mile Report (basic info about the report in .pdf format)

Simple multiplication revealed that the total U.S. T-1 and T-3 capacity almost equals the capacity of the nation''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''s entire copper plant. Assuming every POTS line can be used for v.90 Internet speeds and lumping in ISDN and DSL, the entire U.S. copper plant can channel 12.3 Tb/s per second of throughput, comparable with 13.5 Tb/s on the country''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''s 2.15 million T-1 and T-3 lines.

Total U.S. capacity of access technologies
	No. of lines	Average throughput (kb/s)	Total throughput (Gb/s)
POTS	200 million	56	11,200
T-1	2 million	1544	6716
T-3	150,000	44,740	6811
ISDN (BRI)	1.8 million	128	230
ISDN	300,000	1400	420
DSL	2.5 million	200	500
Cable modem	5 million	200	1000
Source: New Paradigm Research Group