'Billy, don't be a hero!'

It has been hectic for us covering all things info-tech. The question is, where to turn first? Reactions to AT&T/SBC, Microsoft/Comcast, the FCC barreling ahead with its access order, and Bell regional holding company accusations that AT&T is purposely dragging its feet on local exchange entry to slow down RHC entry into long-distance certainly were interesting. However, remarks by Netscape Chairman Jim Clark in Brussels at a European Parliament conference on 21st century telecommunications were what caught my eye.

Mr. Clark said: "My message to Europe is, 'Be careful.' The Internet has to remain open. No one 15 years ago would have predicted that a company with a bit of an operating system would become so powerful. Whoever gets control of APIs will have the same control over tomorrow's telecom. It is prudent to be mindful of how the path of network applications will go. Microsoft will be forced to split up just like AT&T and Standard Oil.

My crystal ball is murkier than Mr. Clark's. I'm not convinced Microsoft will be split up, at least not by regulators. Nevertheless, his point about Microsoft's ambitions are all the more poignant, given recent remarks by Microsoft Executive Vice President of Sales and Support Steven Ballmer that the company's goal is "Windows everywhere.

In discussing Microsoft's Comcast investment, Bill Gates commented, "We are not in the cable business ourselves. We will never be in the cable business ourselves. This is not an expansion of the business Microsoft is in." He doth protest too much. If he controls the user interface, the client software, network operating system, server software, the application development software, and the back office and provisioning software, what business is he in? It is a minor point that somebody else owns the media and markets the service to the customer. Plus, the capital and people end of the cable business is often a money loser anyway.

The next step in telecommunications is likely to be the integration of screen-based information with voice communications. What is at hand is nothing short of the migration of every single telephone that has been produced in the last 150 years to a Web-browsing series of terminals that support circuit-switched and IP-based voice communications. These will be devices with and without cords - devices that display text and poor-quality video but eventually become compelling interactive multiple media devices.

In this world, it doesn't matter whether a typical household has TVs, PCs, NetPCs, WebTVs, network computers, personal communicators or some sort of hybrid. What households will have is a variety of screen-based communications-capable "stuff." This is the context for the Microsoft initiatives with Comcast, and previously with WebTV. It is the context driving Microsoft's three-year spending binge on more than 20 software and Net-centric companies. It is the foundation of its joint venture with NBC and several other ventures.

Bill Gates doesn't really care what we call all this "stuff." All he cares about is that whenever these devices interact, it is in Microsoft's environment. The company's infamous "Where do you want to go today?" marketing mantra takes on new meaning when Microsoft controls the APIs. All of a sudden, the role of benign gateway starts looking more like benevolent gatekeeper.

In the future, I hope it is still my gate. I also hope that I have some say in what it looks like, and how I want it to open, close and lock. I also want the ultimate say over who and what comes in and goes out - no cookies and no Reese's Pieces for E.T.

The major domos at Netscape, Sun and Oracle love taking public cheap shots at the Tzar of Redmond. It is often difficult to separate their delusions of grandeur from what constitutes significant public discourse. In the instance of Mr. Clark's remarks, however, more than a modicum of real concern needs to be evaluated.

The point also should not be lost that Mr. Clark chose to speak his mind to a telecom rather than computer audience. As the last of the three knights protecting the Holy Grail remarked to Indiana Jones when he picked up the correct cup, "You chose wisely." The 1974 bubble gum music classic from one-hit wonder Paper Lace probably sums up Mr. Clark's remarks best, however: "Billy, Don't Be A Hero.

Peter Bernstein is President of infonautics Consulting Inc., Ramsey, N.J. His e-mail address is 714-9256@mcimail.com.