It's Time for the Anti-Set-top Box Version 3.0

I’ve got four teenagers. I live in a college town. And my office is often full of 20-something interns. I get a lot of face-to-face time with this generation, time helps me understand how they consume media and how they use devices.

This is the generation that has cut the landlines and moved to mobile phones. And this generation that thinks nothing whatsoever of watching a show on Hulu.com or a video on YouTube instead of watching “TV”. They love things like Slingbox, iPods, and IM.

And the more I observe them, the more obvious it is to me that what they want for video is a set-top box that isn’t really a set-top box – it’s an the anti-set-top box. They want devices that aren’t attached to a traditional TV service but instead to Internet-based “over-the-top” content. They want open not closed, surfable not constrained. When the anti-set-top box is available, I’m about ready to jettison my satellite dish for one of these myself.

So what’s stopping them (and me)? Well mainly that the boxes themselves just aren’t quite there yet. We’ve gone through the 1.0 generation, and moved into the 2.0 generation with devices like the Roku Netflix player which has been followed by copycats ranging from 2Wire’s Blockbuster box to Verisimo’s VuNow. Some of these might even be verging on 2.5 generation boxes even with the addition of 1080p video on boxes like Vudu.

We’re dreadfully close to the tilt-the-world 3.0 generation box that moves the bar forward by a big leap. What has to be inside such a box? Well I’d argue that the following stuff is required:

1. Visual and motion-enabled interface. The 3.0 box will have a new interface – preferably (and I think required to have) a Wii-like motion-controlled interface. There’s a lot of content that’s out there, and there’s no easy way to find it all without a mouse-like, visual browsing interface. I’ve been saying this for years. Now you’re hearing it from others: witness Netflix’s CEO Reed Hastings last week, who said that we need to move on from today’s up/down/left/right interface and “abandon the remote with 54 buttons and go to a simple pointer”. Amen. And if you don’t believe me and him, then take a look at the gaming console marketplace – where the Wii (which is several generations behind in things like graphics) is dominating the market over Microsoft’s and Sony’s platforms despite these platforms’ clear technical lead. Why is motion-enablement required? Two reasons: 1) All it takes is one set-top box to have it and you’re at a major disadvantage without it. 2) You’re not going to be able meet the needs of points 2-4 below without a pointing interface. Mark my words, we’ll see motion control on those platforms before too long. Any anti-set-top manufacturer will be playing catch up the moment a competitor introduces this feature. Who’s going to be first?