COMPTEL: How the election could impact telecom

ORLANDO -- Whether the next president is John McCain or Barack Obama, the telecom industry can expect some policy changes, according to Washington insiders speaking at the Comptel fall trade show and convention here this week. But the extent of that change appears uncertain, with some experts predicting minor impact and others expecting bigger shifts.

Larry Irving, co-chair of the Internet Innovation Alliance, was heavily involved in the last major telecom reform effort as assistant secretary of commerce and head of the National Telecommunications and Information Administration under Bill Clinton. Given all that will challenge the next administration, Irving believes extensive change in telecom regulation is unlikely, regardless of who wins the election.

“With two wars, the economic meltdown, healthcare issues and other problems, telecom won’t come to the fore,” Irving said as part of a panel on the impact of the election. Under Obama, to whom Irving is an adviser, the focus will be on encouraging competition to bring choices and reasonable prices to consumers and on promoting new technologies and innovations that solve old problems such as access to the last mile for competitors.

“We have been fighting the [last mile access] war for 20 years now, and I’m not sure any president would get involved in that battle,” Irving said.

It’s possible a Democratic sweep of the White House and several addition Senate seats could lead to broader reforms, said Teddy Downey, senior analyst with the Potomac Research Group.

“If you look at what people are saying about the economic mess, it’s deregulation that got us here,” Downey said. “It’s possible that that attitude bleeds over into healthcare and telecom reform, and not just financial services.” The result could be a much more active Department of Justice and FCC coming down harder on the telecom industry, he said. More than likely, big mergers will get much heavier scrutiny and be subject to more conditions, Downey said. “There could be pretty dramatic changes.”