Asian broadband dominance grows

The influence of Asian markets on the broadband sector loomed ever larger in the first quarter, according to new data from Dittberner Associates. Trends in DSL and fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) equipment and subscribers were led by Asian carriers and vendors.

DSL shipments grew to their highest volume ever in the first quarter, while FTTH shipments dipped to their second highest, Dittberner said. Global shipments of DSL ports grew 5% sequentially to 25 million, while shipments of FTTH ports sank 5% sequentially to 1.1 million ports. The decline in FTTH shipments (up 13% from a year earlier) was caused mainly by a shift in the mix of homes and apartments in Japan, which dominates the FTTH market. Japan saw a large increase in VDSL subscribers during the quarter, Dittberner said.

The DSL growth was driven largely by higher-than-expected subscriber growth in China, which contributed more than a third of the world’s 12 million new DSL subscribers in the quarter. Meanwhile, for the first time ever, the combined DSL market share of Asian vendors Huawei Technologies and ZTE surpassed that of market leader Alcatel-Lucent.

“DSL shipments into North America will continue to decline, due to the slowdown in AT&T’s buildout, Verizon’s shift to FTTH and the absence of alternative service providers,” Dittberner said.

Verizon Communications remained a distant second in the global FTTH subscriber race, with about one-fifth as many subscribers as Japan’s NTT, which has 4.5 million. But Dittberner expects Verizon, adding a million subscribers this year, to outpace Korea, which will add about 800,000.

Similarly, the lone American among the top five suppliers of FTTH equipment, Tellabs, is humbled by its Asian counterparts. Mitsubishi, Sumitomo and Hitachi together control about 68% of the global market, while fourth-place Tellabs holds an 11% share. Siemens moved up to fifth place in the quarter, with 9% of the market, thanks to its traction in Korea, where Dittberner expects 1 million ports to be shipped this year.

“GePON is still the dominant [FTTH] technology, and this trend will not change in the next two years,” Dittberner said. A year from now, shipments of GPON gear--the most popular next step among American and Western European incumbents--will probably still be just shy of 300,000 ports per quarter.