Globalcomm: Panel looks toward future in telecom

Chicago—Change and improvement were the buzzwords echoed in Wednesday’s panel at Globalcomm on the future of the communications industry. New technologies were the agreed-upon means of achieving both. Panelists representing major thought leaders in the industry gave their viewpoints on where communications is headed, including where monies should be spent and how companies can capitalize on future profitability.

Offering a governmental perspective, panelist Simon Szykman, director of research and development for the National Coordination Office for Networking and IT, identified the government’s primary concern as being advanced technology in the long run, not private issues like voice over IP and IPTV. Government spending will not only go to new individual technologies, but also to testing bigger projects, he said. Future focuses will primarily include networking, next-generation converged networks and cyber-security.

Panelist Gordon Quinn, vice president of the chief technology office of Nortel Networks, said as a result of the high levels of change that communications is currently experiencing, the industry as a whole is at a major inflection point that bodes well for the future.

“The key word is opportunity,” he said. “It’ll come from change, and right now, we have more opportunity that we’ve seen in a long time.”

Quinn predicts a future where everyone benefits. He believes communication functions will become embedded in broader value propositions, as the industry moves toward a ‘batteries included’ model where a product’s value cannot be separated from the communication function itself. Furthermore, applications will become open source, and the number of applications will significantly increase, he said. These applications will interact and include humans as necessary. Machine-to-machine and machine-to-human communication will become common as machines begin to outnumber people.

“The foundation is under construction,” Quinn said. “There will be much more customization, but it will be more simple at the same time.”

Panelist Judy Beningson, vice president of strategy and planning for Juniper Networks, echoed Quinn’s outlook and identified three major trends for the communication industry. The first trend, she predicted, will be the convergence of four very different spheres of single services. Not only will there be a convergence of players, she said, but also of the services themselves.

“Your next major bill may come from Google or you might not even have a bill because it was paid for by advertising–Nike paid the bill,” Beningson said.

The final two trends she foresees concern Internet activity. The Internet will add a control-plane level that it currently lacks and, reiterating Quinn’s sentiment, she thinks propriety applications will change to open sources.

Taking a different spin on the future outlook, panelist Rajeev Chand, director of research at Rutberg and Co., instead brought up five instrumental questions and their answer’s implications for the future. He predicted that the next billion-dollar start-up company would follow a paradigm similar to Internet start-ups. As an example, he cited Limbo 41414, a start-up that blends elements of a sweepstakes, an auction and gaming on mobile phones via text messaging.

In response to his remaining questions concerning the industry’s most under- and overrated areas, Chand said he believes that the market over-expects from mobile advertising and under-expects from mobile search engine companies while under-utilizing voice recognition technologies. These are facts that should not be neglected in the future, he said.

Whether the future will include technologies yet unimagined is largely unknown. But, as Quinn warned, one thing is clear: “If we don’t change–don’t recognize the demand–we’ll all be in the museums as old fossils.”