Is Fiber's Rose Still Blooming?

The Big Headlines of 2008 weren't particularly kind to the fiber-to-the-home crowd. Verizon's FiOS project suddenly stumbled in the second quarter, as its net customer adds decelerated sharply. Two major municipal FTTH projects in Utah — iProvo and Utopia — teetered dangerously close to failure as they were unable to attract customers, and a third smaller regional Minneapolis FTTH network was scrapped after years of planning. The downturn in the housing market has meant many fewer new residential developments into which fiber can be installed by incumbents, developers or competitors.

But as we note in this FTTx supplement, fiber is still the endgame in telecom access networks, and it continues to spread its influence.

That influence appears to be much greater outside the U.S., however, for some very different reasons. In Asia, FTTH has taken off because it has been established as a political priority and has received heavy government subsidies. In Europe, as I note in an article beginning on page 8, government policies to promote competition have had the additional effect of driving more fiber into the access plant as well. Municipalities, incumbents and competitors alike are looking to find the balance of business and regulation that will enable them to take fiber all the way home, often as an open access network shared by multiple service providers.

And as my colleague, Mark Donahue, notes beginning on page 2, the U.S. cable industry is getting more interested in how fiber will shape its future, although many remain assured that their hybrid fiber/coaxial cable approach to building networks is sound for now.

If you factor in the still lively municipal FTTH market and the emergence of companies such as Broadweave Networks, profiled beginning on page 6 by Ed Gubbins, the bigger picture looks more positive for fiber deployments.

There are, to be sure, still stumbling blocks — for FTTH in particular. AT&T and Qwest Communications remain committed to their fiber-to-the-node networks, and when BT finally weighed in this summer on its long-awaited fiber plans, the U.K. giant also eschewed FTTH — although that could change if the Brits get regulatory assurances.

We probably won't know for a few years whether failing to take fiber all the way to the customer is a critical error or a wise calculation of where both the market and technology are headed. Verizon continues to expand its fiber footprint and is working harder at the marketing end of selling FiOS, so we may see in just a few months whether the second-quarter slump was a seasonal issue or a true sign that consumers aren't yet clamoring for the kinds of speeds and services an FTTH network can deliver.