3G may steal the show from 4G at CTIA

CTIA Wireless this year could be the year that all the stops come out for 4G. Both Verizon Wireless (NYSE:VZ, NYSE:VOD) and MetroPCS (NYSE:PCS) will launch commercial long-term evolution networks this year, and AT&T (NYSE:T) isn’t too far behind. For all the attention LTE has received globally, its advent in the U.S. would seem to call for enormous amounts of hoopla. But I suspect the 4G story at CTIA will be much more muted.

First off, LTE’s big U.S. champion, Verizon, will likely be quiet. VZW doesn’t do things incrementally. It pre-announces squat, and it keeps its strategic plans close to its vest. It doesn’t plan to launch LTE commercially until the latter half of the year, so if it has something to say about LTE, it will likely be then. MetroPCS hasn’t said much about its LTE plans, so we might hear about its first trial networks or some initial coverage plans. As for AT&T, it probably doesn’t want to focus on the fact it’s a year behind its primary competitor in 4G. Plus, it’s centering all of its efforts and attention on its 3G network, which has seen enormous traffic increases due to the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone. Expect AT&T to focus much more on the services it offers today and the network upgrades it has implemented in the past year.

Second, there may not be much of an LTE story to tell. Remember, these LTE deployments are very early, likely beating out every operator in the world except TeliaSonera. The LTE ecosystem is still developing, and the handsets and nifty devices are still absent. At launch, VZW and Metro won’t have more than rote mobile broadband to offer. Forgive me, but it’s hard to get excited about laptop USB dongles. Verizon has made it clear that it feels the big LTE opportunity will be in the next generation of embedded data devices and plans to use LTE primarily for mobile broadband access while waiting for those devices to emerge. MetroPCS wants to use LTE as an ambitious substitute for 3G and will focus on handsets, the first of which won’t be available for another year. I wouldn’t expect either operator to hype 4G services until they get a clearer idea of what their future device portfolios will look like.

Finally, for all the excitement about 4G, 3G is where it’s at right now. Expect the talk to be about apps, new smartphones — driven by new operating systems, tapping into new application stores — and more apps. On the infrastructure side, there’s a lot of activity going on today with 3G that will have a much more immediate impact on carriers’ fortunes. T-Mobile (NYSE:DT) is upgrading to HSPA+. AT&T is racing to keep its 3G network on pace with its data growth. Sprint (NYSE:S) and Verizon may not be saying too much about their EV-DO networks because they have no 3G upgrade plans. But expect VZW to focus on new services — like its recently announced deal to offer Skype — new devices from its open developer initiative and new smartphones. Sprint will probably do the same as well as direct any 4G hype out there squarely on its WiMax service.

In fact, it’s from WiMax that the biggest 4G splash will come at CTIA. Clearwire (NASDAQ:CLWR) has ramped up its WiMax buildout since last year’s show. Its investor MVNO partners, Sprint, Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) have all launched 4G services over its network, and it has built up its device portfolio beyond mere laptop cards. Let’s not forget that Clearwire has a live commercial network running in Las Vegas, which it will make the most of at the show. Expect demos galore and one or two new device unveilings. We might even see that WiMax handset we’ve been promised for so long.

E-mail me at kevin.fitchard@penton.com.