National broadband dreamin’

The National Broadband Plan is a challenge for our industry.

Some are calling it a dream. In my opinion, the NBP is a document of substance, of immense importance and one that should serve as the vision and blueprint for this nation’s broadband-enabled future. The NBP’s authors put it into context right from the beginning. The NBP asserts that broadband is the first 21st century national infrastructure play, on par the with grand projects of the 19th and 20th centuries — the transcontinental railroad, rural electrification, universally available telephone, radio and television services, and the interstate highway system.

Even more significant are the NBP’s overarching long-term goals — and how these goals will challenge service providers, their customers and their vendors.

First is the need for speed: “At least 100 million U.S. homes should have affordable access to actual download speeds of at least 100 megabits per second and actual upload speeds of at least 50 megabits per second.”

This “100-squared” challenge is akin to President Kennedy’s 1962 call to send a man to the moon and return him safely to earth by the end of that decade. That mission was accomplished. The “100-squared” challenge is just as ambitious, but we can do it. Here’s why. ….

First, the term “actual” says a lot. Actual means what is delivered not what is advertised. Today, actual broadband speeds are about half of what is advertised. Actual download speeds will need to be much higher to overcome the vagaries of wired facilities or wireless propagation. For service providers and their customers, access to 100 Mb/s download speeds opens up a host of new, and many yet-to-be-developed applications, and their revenue streams, including a high video component.

But here’s the catch. None of the access equipment on the market today can support actual 100/50 Mb/s speeds. Wireline technologies such as xDSL, FTTx, and xPON or cable’s DOCSIS 3.0 only deliver up to 50 Mb/s. 3G cellular and 4G WiMAX barely deliver double-digit download speeds. Even current version of 4G long-term evolution (LTE) will not get to 100 Mb/s.

So broadband equipment being purchased today is, essentially, obsolete out of the box, and it will have to be replaced within five years to meet the NBP’s challenge. Today’s equipment may achieve the interim five-year objective of 50 Mb/s downloads and 20 Mb/s uploads, but it must all be replaced for 100-squared performance. So service providers must either defer capital investments until 100-squared products are available or be prepared to write down significant assets that will still be on the books in five years. The challenge for equipment manufacturers is to invent products that can perform at 100-squared speeds, consistently and reliably, sooner rather than later.

At the same time, the NBP places a renewed emphasis on wireless broadband, and the urgent need for more spectrum for it: “The United States should lead the world in mobile innovation with the fastest and most extensive wireless networks of any nation.”

Mobile broadband, enabled by 4G WiMAX and LTE technologies, is one of the fastest growing services segments in telecom. Mobile broadband is being driven by smartphones, with their range of e-applications, and, increasingly, streaming video. Mobile customers demand broadband where and when they want it.

To meet the challenges of a mobile broadband society, the FCC estimates that we need 500 MHz more spectrum in 10 years — 10 times the current 50 MHz inventory. Spectrum is not a renewable commodity; the 500 MHz will come from frequency bands already in use, which will be reallocated and repurposed for wireless broadband.

The NBP is an American dream. Its challenges are daunting, but its promise is a grand vision of a broadband future for this country. Ten years out, we’re hoping that the plan becomes a dream fulfilled.