2009 Predictions: A Mid-Year Reality Check

As I write this, the Tour de France is going into its first rest day and baseball fans in the U.S. are eagerly awaiting the MLB All-Star Game.  Even if you’re not a big sports fan, the implication is obvious – we’ve entered July and the middle of another year.

So, in that spirit, I wanted to take a trip down memory lane and revisit our thoughts on 2009 and wireless networks and wireless infrastructure from way back in January.

• LTE Goes (barely) Commercial.  What We Said: With operators planning initial deployments in 2009, vendors will need to live up to their promises of commercial LTE availability in the latter part of the year; given the fact that many currently base station platforms will supposedly support LTE operations, it should be hard to hit this mark. How Things Look: Right on cue, vendors spent this year’s trade shows talking up their LTE radio access and core products.  Some even took a broader purview – highlighting solutions that included transport, applications, voice, etc.  In reality, however, commercial LTE product availability is stretching into Q4 or 2010 for many vendors, suggesting that “barely” is the operative word on the prediction, something that could easily slip.
• WiMAX Takes a Beating.  WiMAX Vendors Take To LTE.  What We Said:  The [WiMAX] focus on fixed and portable applications will continue in 2009…leading to press and analyst reports proclaiming the demise of the technology.  Where silicon vendors have talked up an ability to support both WiMAX and LTE, system vendors will follow-suit.  How Things Look:  The imminent arrival of LTE combined with yet another major vendor pullback from WIMAX (Nokia Siemens Networks) has done little to help the image of the technology.  Across the board, as large wireless vendors reposition their support for WiMAX, a tighter focus on LTE has been quoted as the rationale.  Smaller WiMAX specialists, however, have been relatively quiet on their plans to move into the LTE space.  Of course, it’s always seemed improbable that smaller vendors (coming from a fixed-wireless legacy) could compete for LTE wins – though TD-LTE may play to their strengths in terms of technology and customer size given the dribs and drabs of underutilized TDD spectrum available worldwide.
• 802.16m – At Last.  What We Said:  2009 should be the year we hear more about the standardization and commercialization of 802.16m.  More importantly, by promising an evolution, 802.16m could help convince operators that mobile WiMAX truly delivers investment protection – potentially driving WiMAX uptake (particularly if LTE stalls).  How Things Look:  While vendor wrangling and intellectual property issues will make a convergence of WiMAX and LTE difficult (at best), some have begun talking up the potential – suggesting that 802.16m is the right venue for this work.  Beyond that, however, the industry has been remarkably silent on the standard.  Where vendors have already begun highlighting their LTE-Advanced R&D, the same isn’t really true for 802.16m (even Alvarion has gone relatively silent on its SentieM solution).  Where the WiMAX Forum has announced new members and deployment momentum, news on success with 802.16m has been absent.  To keep momentum rolling, it’s understandable that the industry would not want to focus too much to future capabilities.  To drive the long-term viability of the technology, however, 802.16m progress (sooner, rather than later) is still critical.
• 3G Evolutions – Market and Technical.  What We Said:  HSPA will grow into HSPA+, following on 2008’s trials and initial sales announcements.  At the same time, WCDMA (with HSPA from the start) will also evolve to tackle new markets and move deeper into emerging markets as system and device scale (and years of cost-cutting R&D) make it possible to target these markets and voice/data efficiencies make it a logical scenario.  How Things Look:  China’s getting 3G.  India’s gotten 3G – and will get more when auctions get underway…joining 2009 deployments in markets such as Uzbekistan, Angola, Indonesia, etc.  HSPA+, meanwhile, has been overshadowed by LTE.  A handful of commercial launches plus 25+ commitments signal that momentum hasn’t been stymied.  Unfortunately, Ericsson – alone – seems to be driving HSPA+ thinking from a vendor perspective, suggesting either that the technology’s success is a foregone conclusion or that other vendors are still weighing their commitments against LTE R&D.
• Lagging CDMA Enhancements.  What We Said:  EV-DO and DORA will continue to deliver the capacity and throughput needed to power many mobile data services.  Operators around the world will continue to rely on the 3GPP2’s technologies.  To keep these operators happy, CDMA evolutions have been designed: EV-DO rev. B and CDMA200 1X Enhanced.  As a way to grow end-user data rates or voice efficiencies, they make sense.  They’re, also, unlikely to get deployed in 2009.  How Things Look:  China Telecom’s decision to trial EV-DO rev. B. was big news.  Following KDDI’s commitment and trials from Moroccan operator WANA, the prospects are clearly looking up for the technology.  Yet, while voice-enhancing 1X upgrades are almost certain to see the light of day (if only because the best way to deliver voice over LTE still remains a mystery) new questions from Verizon surrounding the longevity of EV-DO suggest that enhancements to the technology may not get the global support hoped for.
• Femtocells get Real, get Apps.  What We Said:  2009 looks to be ripe with launches and service expansions.  Given the availability of cheap voice services and solid 3G coverage in many of these markets, operators will need to find new ways to market the value of femtocells, suggesting that the focus on femto-based applications will pick up steam.  How Things Look:  Verizon has launched its service.  Sprint has contracted for 3G femtocells.  Vodafone has launched commercial femtocell services in the UK.  AT&T promises a launch this year.  2010 may still be the year that sees femtocells get deployed more broadly, but 2009 has seen the technology move forward.  Few operators look to be launching with applications at the center of their strategy, but they should (even using WiFi to learn about the demand and test out applications) and the Femto Forum’s “Services” special interest group makes two things clear: market demand for applications is real; the market is getting ready to deliver solid application support.
• Muni WiFi Remains Under The Radar.  What We Said:  As the value of metro-scale WiFi for municipal uses (meter reading, public safety, etc.) and public access is further proven, new deployments and expansions will continue into 2009 – but the limited scale of these launches will keep it out of the news.  How Things Look:  Muni WiFi launches have continued this year; with Tropos in Venice; with Motorola in Osaka; with BelAir and Guest-Tek.  Launch investigations have also been running hot, with RFI/RFQ work reported from many cities and municipal organizations.  Regardless, the biggest news this year on the mesh front is likely the gradual movement of mesh solutions to support 802.11n – with major new launches being few and far between.  Of course, with market-leader BelAir announcing little more than hospitality and venue wins and Tropos still seeking new funds, a new focus on technology vs. momentum is understandable.
• Apps Focus.  What We Said:  Always ready to tap operator demands and the revenue opportunity they represent, wireless network vendors will redouble their efforts at delivering mobile data applications.  The impending arrival of more mobile broadband bandwidth, combined with devices that can take advantage of it, will make the focus more relevant than ever.  How Things Look:  Nominally, the focus on mobile applications has been strong this year, depending on your definition of “application.”  On the voice front, voice (and SMS) over LTE has taken center stage as an industry concern.  On the IMS front, RCS seems to be gaining traction.  On the advertising front, mobile ad deals for Alcatel-Lucent (E-Plus) and Ericsson (Telia Sonera) suggest that operators are getting serious about non-traditional revenue sources.  Yet, if Alcatel-Lucent’s leadership with the ng Connect initiative is encouraging on the application front, the fact that few other vendors have been so vocal is worrying.
• Green, Green, Green.  What We Said:  Operators looking to use green as a selling point with customers will want to get a jump on competitors, beating them to the punch and establishing themselves as socially conscious service providers.  Perhaps more importantly, regulation (or the fear of it) will keep the focus on green high…this means that green marketing will need to move beyond product-level messages.  How Things Look:  Green marketing continues to be a central component of vendor messaging – whether it’s new base station power efficiencies or new shelters than can keep cooling and heating costs down.  There can be no doubt, however, that the focus on sustainability has moved beyond product marketing; vendors and operators are partnering with international organizations like the WWF to set out green guidelines; vendors are building out sustainability-oriented professional services; the ITU has begun work on calculating the climate impact of the ICT industry.  Against this backdrop, Huawei’s messaging about the ultimate importance of energy efficiency might seem dated.  Since power consumption (and the OpEx it implies) will have the greatest impact on the environment and is likely what matters most to operators, it’s not a dated message at all.