IDC: Net neutrality proponents should negotiate

A new report from IDC advises Web companies that are pushing for Net neutrality to instead begin to negotiate and partner with the broadband service providers whose facilities they will need for content distribution.

That advise is based on two realities, says Matt Davis, program director of IDC's Consumer Multiplay Services program and an author of the study "U.S. Consumer Internet Traffic 2007-2011 Forecast: The Impact of Net Neutrality on Service Provider Infrastructure Investment." First, imposing Net neutrality rules on cable and telephone companies would most likely depress infrastructure investment and slow the availability of the high-speed networks that new video services will require, Davis said.

Secondly, the “tiered services” strategies -- providing higher quality of service for higher prices -- that network neutrality seeks to prohibit actually deliver the quality of service that the Googles and Yahoo!s of the world will need to offer high-quality video, he added.

“That’s why I think Google is going to come around,” Davis said. “It’s not all fun and games with short-form, user-created, grainy, and poor quality forever. They will want to be full-fledged video distribution hub, all the way up to HD content. If you get into that business, there is no other avenue, but to have some form of quality of service.”

Davis believes Net neutrality action by either Congress or the Federal Communications Commission is highly unlikely, “unless someone really messes up,” he said. This week’s Federal Trade Commission report saying there is no need for Net neutrality legislation will help dampen already waning interest in Washington, where telecom issues are largely overshadowed by other matters.

The IDC report also forecast future Internet traffic growth, by type of traffic, and predicted that streaming video will become almost one-third of all U.S. consumer Internet traffic by 2012, which is up from 7.3% of traffic last year. Web browsing, currently 39% of traffic, will fall off to 26.7% by 2012, and peer-to-peer will fall from 32.2% in 2006 to 22% in 2012.

The video explosion will cause Internet traffic in the U.S. to triple by 2011, IDC predicts.