Breaking the log jam

The ebb and flow of regulatory action is sometimes hard to fathom. There seemed to be a long period--three years at least--when the telecom industry was languishing but key issues remained unresolved at the federal level that kept everyone--incumbents, competitors, equipment vendors, investors--frozen in place. Then, suddenly this summer, the log jam is broken, and the regulatory freedoms flow.

Within a period of weeks, both the major incumbents--cable and telco--are assured that their investment in broadband technology is protected from regulatory requirements that they resell to competitors at prices not set in the marketplace.

The next obvious step will be to see how these two major players respond. Will telcos step up their investment to speed true broadband--and I'm not talking the 64 kilobit nonsense of the current reform bill--to the majority of their subscribers? (My vote: yes, but at their own frustrating pace.) Will cable ever see the light and the appeal of wholesale service offerings? (My vote: no, these guys probably didn't share paste as kindergartners.)

But there are two other key responses to the FCC's action that will determine whether this commission is on track in its goal of allowing the marketplace to spread broadband access. First, what happens to the handful of companies that kept steadily working through the "dark" period of regulatory uncertainty, building out their footprints and building up a base of customers? Companies such as Covad Communications and New Edge Networks should thrive in this new environment with new opportunities to reach even more customers with competitive offerings. Both companies are dependent on commercial access to last-mile loops and could be strong first indicators of whether that access is now suddenly much harder to expensive.

The second indicator will be how quickly a "third" wire develops, and the possibilities here are multiple. Two-way satellite, broadband wireless, broadband powerline and municipal fiber networks are among the most likely possibilities. If the U.S. market is as robust in its broadband demand as the FCC believes, and if the market-driven approach is to succeed, we will see new players emerge with funding in place.

Competition is the best hope for consumer choice, innovation and decent pricing. Those who held back blaming uncertain regulations are now free to move. Just do it.

E-mail me at CWilson3@primediabusiness.com.