The bandwidth requirement conundrum

Ben Franklin once said, “In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” For those of us in the telecommunications industry, there seems to be another, almost-daily, certainty that we can count on – an estimate by some pundit on the minimum amount of bandwidth required to deliver the triple-play of services into the home. You know the drill: The expert du jour adds up the capacity required for various services, speculates a little on how these will grow over time, throws in a “fudge factor” or two, and voila … comes up with an authoritative number like 42.5 Mb/s. More entertaining than they are useful, these exercises are fundamentally misguided, invariably resulting in a gross underestimation of capacity requirements for the next wave of broadband access. Why? Because they typically fail to consider the only aspect of bandwidth that humans can actually perceive: time.

Bandwidth prognostications today focus on only the stream side of the equation -- adding up the total bandwidth requirements of all streams concurrently supported by the multi-service experience delivered. What these prognosticators forget, however, is that files are another matter.

Consumers are uploading and downloading MP3 files (music), JPEG files (pictures), and MPEG files (video) at an ever-increasing pace -- and with the proliferation of high-definition video, these files aren’t getting smaller. A typical MP3 file might be 5 to 10 Mb. A feature-length film can be 1 to 2 Gb.

Why do pundits often overlook file downloads? Perhaps because you can’t answer the question of “How much bandwidth is required to download a file?” Because bandwidth is dependent on customer and context, there are multiple answers. Perhaps the question is better asked a different way -- “How much bandwidth is required to download a file that provides the quality of experience that the customer requires?” Need a 1.5 gigabyte movie in 60 seconds? The answer is 200 Mb/s. Willing to wait an hour? A 3 Mb/s best-effort connection will do the trick.

So what is a service provider to do? Well, the first step is recognizing that you have a problem -- a multi-dimensional problem -- composed of a variety of content-delivery needs, fickle customers, a range of technology choices in the network and the home, and a changing service paradigm. Now embrace this challenge, because the choices and changes facing the customer are even more daunting, and he or she is looking to you to fix these problems.

The good news is that you have the foundation of a strong and sticky relationship if you can meet customers’ needs. In fact, analysis from IDC suggests that more than 55 percent of U.S. customers already subscribe to multi-service bundles from a single service provider today, and this will grow to nearly 90 percent in the next five years. IDC has also found that the fundamental building block of the bundles is -- you guessed it -- broadband. Put two and two together, and you’ll find that the problem may be complex, but the solution is simple -- build the fastest broadband connection to the home you can afford as quickly and effectively as possible. Then, seek ways to deliver value effectively to segments of the market through flexible packaging and pricing that caters to dynamic customer needs.

Broadband service demands are changing. Going forward, content will be not just delivered, but widely shared and interactive by nature. Friends share movie clips, TV viewers request and receive information complementary to their programming. News and content is created and uploaded. SlingBox, Bit Torrent, Vudu -- all of these services represent the changes afoot in service delivery and consumption, and emphasize how network speed, both upstream and downstream, is becoming a critically important attribute to the quality of the consumer experience. Although not necessarily required to be symmetrical, bandwidth does need to be adequate to support burgeoning upstream requirements from photo sharing to gaming to video sharing. In the future, consumers will increasingly search for and source content from multiple locations—and they will potentially want the flexibility to download immediately, download progressively, and trickle down and play later. Bandwidth planning is nothing more than ensuring that your network can adequately support the dynamic service requirements of your customers.

Your sense of frustration has probably reached its zenith about now. How can I build a network without a definitive amount of bandwidth? Well, the answer is – do the best that you can. Competitive and financial issues, as well as existing network topology issues, are going to influence what you can do. That said, don’t make your decision process binary. Consider segmenting and subdividing your network so that the challenges in any one part don’t limit your flexibility in addressing unique demands faced in other parts. Choose a broadband migration path on a network-by-network basis, then revisit and reassess your path over time. With market, business, and technology dynamics changing as rapidly as they are, you can’t afford to let any part of your network hold you back or any opportunity to go unnoticed.

So, how much bandwidth is enough? Rather than a definitive number, the real answer is more along the lines of “as much as you can deliver” given the circumstances in front of you. At a minimum, this means meeting and anticipating the demands of your customers better than your competition does. Ultimately, the broadband service provider of choice will be the one who delivers the most salient and valued services from the consumers’ perspective, over the most efficient network that can best throttle to meet customers’ varying demands. So enough about how much is enough. Build what you can – but keep in mind that there will be a direct correlation between the network speed you can deliver and the capacity you have to dynamically deliver what the customer needs.