Standoff at the bandwidth corral

Most of the time, when presented with two absolutely conflicting views, I can figure out which one I believe. In the life-standard debates, Republican vs. Democrat, Cubs vs. Sox, chunky vs. creamy, I have no problem picking sides.

When it comes to AT&T’s broadband strategy, however, I admit to being flummoxed.

I know of multiple analysts and long-time industry experts, whose opinions I trust and value, who say flat-out that AT&T is getting it wrong by not building fiber to the home in the majority of its territory. Their arguments make sense -- there are physical limitations on how much bandwidth you can provide over a copper loop, and with bandwidth demands skyrocketing and high-definition TV set to boom, AT&T is bound to run out of bandwidth and be unable to keep up with cable and satellite in delivering video.

But spend a few minutes with an AT&T executive and you get a very different view. Over the last few weeks, CTO Chris Rice and two vice presidents -- Peter Hill, vice president of video and converged services and Jeff Weber, vice president of products and strategies -- have made very public and very strong endorsements of the fiber-to-the-node offering.

They state, unequivocally, that bandwidth is a non-issue for AT&T now, and in the future. Their reasoning is simple: Compression is getting better all the time, reducing the amount of bandwidth required to deliver HD channels (a view supported by Scientific-Atlanta), and will continue to improve. Transmission technology is also improving, as VDSL 2 comes to market. And if customer demand for bandwidth is that great, it’s possible to bond copper lines to deliver more bandwidth as well.

Just after his VON speech, Weber admitted some frustration that, no matter how often AT&T says bandwidth is not an issue, the industry remains convinced that the current strategy is a temporary phenomenon, and AT&T will soon see the light. That’s part of what fuels the constant rumors that the telecom giant will buy a satellite company.

I have to admit, in this case, I can see both points of view, and I’m having a hard time choosing. So tell me, what do you think?

E-mail me at cwilson3@telephonyonline.com.