Can Telcos avoid a speed race with cable?

When cable operators get their hands on DOCSIS 3.0-compliant equipment, which could happen within a year if you are to believe some, telcos suddenly will be faced with a competitor that can offer high-speed access services faster than anything they've ever faced. By combining, or “bonding,” channels within the spectrum available on coax, cable operators, in fact, will be able to offer Internet access services up to 100 Mb/s.

And while virtually everyone agrees that telcos will need to respond to such a looming threat, there is widespread disagreement on how to do that. Some vendors, pointing to the experience in Japan and Korea, where 100 Mb/s is available via VDSL, say telcos need to match cable operators in this speed race. Others believe the solution lies in marketing and bundling services.

Perhaps the most immediate question telcos must answer is whether they can match a 100 Mb/s service from cable. The answer might not be readily obvious. With a fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) architecture, the technical capability is available. However, most telcos with FTTH deployments aren't offering 100 Mb/s data service because of the cost of equipment and transport at the aggregation points. Verizon, for instance, is limiting its data service to 15 Mb/s on its FiOS network.

The standardization and future deployment of VDSL2 also will give carriers the ability to offer data service in excess of 50 Mb/s, though most are expected to offer something closer to 10 Mb/s.

Because while the technology can speed data down fiber and copper, IP-based video going down the same path has an even bigger impact on the equation. As telcos move into providing video service, the bandwidth requirements jump significantly. Using the most advanced available compress rates (and staying in the good graces of content providers that are justifiably concerned about picture quality) each standard definition stream takes at least 2 Mb/s out of the bandwidth budget, and each high-definition streaming requires a bare minimum of 9 Mb/s. That in and of itself begs the question of how many video streams will be provided and whether any of them will be high-definition streams.

In Asia, where some carriers are able to offer a triple play that includes video and very high-speed Internet access, one video stream typically is sufficient. However, in North America, most vendors say they rarely see a request for proposals with anything less than three video streams.

“The minimum is three streams per household in North America, and you usually could have one of those streams being high-definition,” said Fabrice Beer-Gabel, senior director of product marketing for telecom video for BigBand Networks. “That line also has to carry data, and we're seeing some real inflation on those data rates. We only have to expect that broadband services won't limit themselves to 1 Mb/s. Fairly quickly, you get to the point where 15 Mb/s gets pretty tight.”

Indeed, most telcos have plans in place that will put their total bandwidth budgets for the triple play well beyond 15 Mb/s, though most don't anticipate going past 50 Mb/s.

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