ACCESS TECHNOLOGY: 10 technologies that will transform the access network

While video and the triple play will grab all the headlines, the underlying technology of ADSL 2+ will be the real driver. ADSL 2+ was ratified by the ITU earlier this year, but the access technology is going to have its biggest impact in 2004 when chipsets and system level gear hits the market. The DSL Forum is already promoting interoperability with a series of “plug fests” through the latter half of this year. The technology, which lets carriers send data downstream at 20 Mb/s up to 5000 feet under ideal conditions, is expected to unleash a wave of triple-play deployments. The technology has been performing well enough in its first test runs that many carriers are bypassing ADSL 2 (minus the plus) because of the new applications enabled by the newer version, according to Tom Starr, president and chairperson of the DSL Forum and a senior member of the technical staff for SBC Communications. “In my opinion, what is going to be more visible and more of a ‘wow’ factor to customers are new services, including advanced gaming and video,” he said. Expect the first system-level products with ADSL 2+ line cards to be on the street in the first half of next year.
 

With Microsoft's recent release of Windows Media 9 and the impending implementation of MPEG 4, video can now be compressed into pretty small data pipes. Smaller pipes mean existing DSL technologies can carry more channels and high-quality video. In the ideal case, HDTV can be squeezed using either compression technology (along with some proprietary algorithms) into a small enough bandwidth gap that telcos actually can put it on their radar for 2005—or perhaps 2006.
 

After years of debate, 2004 is shaping up as the year softswitches will reach significant deployment levels as Class 5 replacements. While numerous carriers—including Verizon Communications, Qwest Communications and BellSouth—have been using the technology on the trunk side of their networks for some time, Sprint's deployment of softswitches in end offices offers a big-carrier example of how to move to the next phase of central office evolution. Wireless carriers also have jumped on the bandwagon, using the next-gen switches to backhaul traffic from base stations. And the softswitch market is giving some start-up vendors a shot at survival. Case in point: Sonus Networks, which according to recent surveys by Synergy Research Group and In-Stat/MDR is the market leader in the carrier-class packet voice equipment market. Cisco Systems, the leader in enterprise deployments, also continues knocking on service provider doors.
 

Comcast, the biggest cable operator in the U.S., stepped back from its circuit switch deployments this year. Next year, though, will start a new chapter for cable telephony, as work from CableLabs' PacketCable initiative bears fruit in the form of major deployments of cable-based voice over IP. Time Warner already has 4000 paying customers in Maine and has committed to significant deployments in early 2004. And Comcast, which still sports more than 1 million circuit-switched customers, is expected to release its own version of triple play by mid-year.
 

Whether it's a desire to connect several PCs to a high-speed access line or the ability to bring high-end audio and video systems together with streaming media services, home networking is at the top of high-end users' wish lists for 2004. According to a recent survey from Jupiter, the number of networked U.S. homes will jump from 11 million this year to 31.6 million in 2008. Some cable operators and telcos are already offering services around multi-PC households, but that's just the beginning. Cable operators, which have a leg up because of their two-to-one lead in residential broadband access, are talking about service around networked high-end TVs and other entertainment devices. DSL operators, though, are getting organized. The DSL Forum's DSLHome initiative is laying the groundwork for telcos by creating recommendations that will allow interoperability among various devices. “A lot of us are looking at things more in a consumer light,” said Robert Escalle, strategic planning manager for Texas Instruments' DSL business unit and a director at the DSL Forum.
 

There's no getting around it: Big carriers rule the roost in telecom. And if the cabal of BellSouth, SBC Communi-cations and Verizon says it will deploy passive optical networks, then PONs will be the preferred access architecture for most carriers in the future. Next year should reveal a lot about the intentions of the largest carriers' stomach for battle with cable operators. And while vendors will continue to debate the specifics of A-PON vs. B-PON vs. E-PON, the architecture gives telcos some inherent technical advantages when deploying video services — for one, the ability to offer true video-on-demand.
 

The nifty little boxes that direct traffic to the proper destination will become the consumer face of the triple play. Luckily for telcos deploying video services, some of the best designs in consumer electronics are coming from IP set-top box vendors. i3's Mood box already won kudos from the Chicago Museum of Architecture and Design. Residential gateways, while not as pretty, provide a lot more functionality—including firewalls and support for network address transversal.
 

Wider-scale enterprise deployments of VoIP have given rise to the hottest technology in packet voice. Session border controllers, which act as gatekeepers at the junction of two IP networks, solve a lot of the sticky issues related to VoIP. For instance, a 25-phone company doesn't really have to look like 25 IP addresses to the outside world—and offer 25 entry points for hackers. Instead, session border controllers make the company's phone system appear to be a single IP point of entry, allowing IT managers to keep their existing internal addressing schemes. Expect carriers to start deploying the technology en masse in 2004. And without a traditional telecom vendor involved in the market yet, the segment could end up becoming a hotbed of merger and acquisition activity.
 

The underlying technology in all those AOL Instant Messenger clients will take a big leap forward in 2004, as business users get more accustomed to the idea that “buddy lists” aren't just for teen-agers. Indeed, the ability to know where people are and what devices they can use to communicate is a proven productivity gainer. Once the accounting department catches up with the economics, expect presence management to become omnipresent.
 

More a set of technologies—like full-rate extended DSL, broadband wireless or just plain Extended DSL. While the Bells waffle on their commitment to massive fiber deployment, the rest of the telco world is pushing forward by trying to get almost every line DSL-enabled. For rural carriers in particular, that means deploying some innovative schemes to reach those at the end of their longest loops. In 2004, all carriers are going to feel pressure to keep customers by offering new services, including broadband.