War with Iraq and the implications for telecom: Are we ready?

Each time we watch or listen to the news these days, we are told that more U.S. and British military personnel are enroute to the Middle East for potential war with Iraq. While many of us hope that a peaceful solution will be found, most experts feel that war with Iraq is likely sometime during the next month or two.

What would a U.S.-Iraq war mean to the beleaguered U.S. telecom industry struggling with its worst years since the Depression?

Given the large number of unknowns, it is hard to give a precise answer to this question, but history and industry experience provide some indicators of what is likely to happen under various scenarios. The duration and scope of the war, as well as the tactics and type of weapons used in the conflict, will have a major impact on the outcome, the public's reaction, and the demands on the public telecommunications networks in the United States. For this article, we have excluded war-time military and governmental communications needs and are focusing on the war's likely implications on the public voice and data networks, as well as on the companies that provide the network services and the associated equipment. We have also assumed that the war with Iraq, if one occurs, will be over in less than 6 months.

Here are three scenarios and the likely telecom implications:

THREE SCENARIOS AND THEIR LIKELY TELECOM IMPACTS

Scenario 1: Conventional War Limited to Iraq The scope of the war is restricted to Iraq, and only conventional weapons are used.

Likely telecom impact: Heavy calling and call blockages to Iraq, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and other Middle East countries. Gas prices increase and travel is greatly reduced. Volumes and holding times on voice and data networks increase significantly to levels well above average. With the spare capacity in most of these networks, the extra loads are handled without major problems. Regular attacks by hostile foreign interests on various U.S. Web sites. Extra physical and network security measures are implemented by all major telecom companies & enterprise customers.

Scenario 2: Conventional War That Spreads The scope of the war spreads to other Middle East countries (Israel and Syria, for example), but only conventional weapons are used.

Likely telecom impact: Same as Scenario I impacts above plus the following: International travel is cut even further. Gas lines form in some places. Growing volumes on voice and data networks lead to sporadic overloads and blockages during the day and other peak periods. The terrorist threat level is increased and calls to the FBI, local police and other governmental agencies swamp their telephone and data networks at times. The demand for satellite and video facilities increases substantially. The Local Exchange Carriers, Cable Companies and ISPs start to see an up tick in orders for additional home lines and high speed internet connections.

Scenario 3: Biological and Chemical War Iraq uses biological and chemical weapons against the U.S. forces and Israel. Conventional weapons remain as the primary means of war. Several terrorist attacks occur in the U.S., none as great as the attacks on the World Trade Center or the Pentagon.

Likely telecom impact: Fear and uncertainty grip a large portion of the U.S. population. Many people decide to stay home for a large portion of their time and severely restrict travel. Blockages occur on a regular basis on all major voice and data networks especially during the first few months; some moderation in blockages after this. Orders for additional wireless services, home telephone lines, and high-speed cable and DSL connections increase significantly swamping the carriers, cable companies and ISPs. The LECs and IXCs shift major resources to the sites attacked by terrorists to restore service. Equipment and software companies also apply their resources to the problem. Calls to doctors, hospitals, local police and other governmental agencies skyrocket and overwhelm their telecom facilities and networks. Several U.S. Web sites are destroyed or disabled by hostile foreign interests.

The above scenarios do not include the use of any weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, biological or chemical) on U.S. territory. They do, however, outline some scenarios that could reasonably be expected to develop, since Iraq has used chemical weapons before.

So what does this mean to the telecom industry? It means that war with Iraq, under some scenarios, could suddenly change the industry situation from one of weak demand across most services and companies to one of overload--especially for home voice and data services. The industry may also be faced with the challenge of rapidly increasing its capacity and service provisioning capability while simultaneously repairing damage done by terrorists.

During the Gulf War some long-distance carriers "locked down" their operations and tightened up physical security, and had few problems. But the prospect of a war involving biological and chemical weapons coupled with new terrorist attacks in the U.S. is unprecedented, and if this situation develops, the telecommunications networks, especially the local wire and cable networks, may be hit with overwhelming demand.

Is the telecommunications industry ready for a potential war with Iraq, especially under the assumptions like those outlined in Scenario 3?

To answer that question, here are a few of the questions that the Department of Homeland Security, U.S. telecom carriers, equipment suppliers, and the industry in general should ask themselves:

Do we have an overall contingency plan for public network services in the event of war?

Do we know where the likely hot spots and shortages will occur in case of war with Iraq and terrorist-related attacks on the U.S.? Is there a plan to address these issues?

Have we developed a disaster recovery or war security plan to protect our network, our people and our facilities? Do we have a "reserve resource" list of skilled people and retirees that could be called on in an emergency?

Do we have back-up plans or expansion options for police, hospitals and state health care units?

Have corporations and other institutions developed telecom plans that allow a large percentage of employees to work from home for long periods of time?

During World War I, Bell System and Independent Company personnel provided the backbone of the U.S. Army Signal Corps in France. More than 15,000 Bell System people enlisted in the military during 1916. In 1941, anticipating World War II, the telephone industry added more than 1 million miles of new long-distance circuits.

Given the nature, speed and technology of modern warfare, large enlistments by telecom people do not appear to be warranted in this case, and spare capacity can probably handle the load generated by a conventional war. But a war using biological and chemical weapons coupled with additional terrorist attacks could pose major problems for the telecommunications industry.

The performance of the industry under war-time conditions will heavily influence whether American society and the American economy can function effectively during this period. If we fail here at home while our troops and military personnel are under fire overseas protecting our freedom, our country may not easily forgive us.

Are we ready?

Scott Williamson is President of Telecommunications: Access & Planning, Inc. He can be reached at swilliamson@att.net.