Battle at 100

In the latest issue of Telephony, I tackled the issue of how telcos should deal with cable operators that choose to deploy 100 Mb/s cable modem service. Most of the vendors interviewed said the last thing telcos should do is get into a battle of speeds with their DSL offerings. It appears carriers are following that advice.

Cable operators already have started pushing the limits of DSL by offering 10 Mb/s. The impending arrival of DOCSIS 3.0-compliant equipment will multiply that capability by 10. Telcos, of course, could respond with fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP), and many are doing that.

However, what we've seen in early FTTP deployments would suggest that telcos prefer keeping data access rates around the same speeds as allowed by ADSL2+, around 25 Mb/s. Much of this, of course, has to do with economics and how much bandwidth could end up costing at the aggregation point. Imagine if a telco's 100 Mb/s offer is wildly successful. Is the cost of a couple of gigs of bandwidth worth it for one small section of a neighborhood?

The other option is more marketing than engineering. Instead of lining up data speeds and seeing whose is faster, some telcos have started the time-honored tradition of negative campaigning, pointing out rightfully that no matter how fast cable claims it is, it's a shared environment, and users will only get a fraction of those speeds promised. The problem is that the average American consumer has the attention span of a gnat and only sees two numbers.

Taking on cable and the quantum leap forward it's about to unleash requires an industry wide effort. One that must tackle the difficult task of explaining to U.S. consumers why 25 is better than 100.

Personal note: My condolences go out to the family and friends of Roger Brown, who passed away last week after a months-long battle with cancer. Roger, the long-time editor of CED magazine, was among the friendliest members of the press and a stalwart among the cable engineer community. Roger was 46 and is survived by a wife and four children. He will be missed.

E-mail me at vvittore@primediabusiness.com.