Sixty-five percent

TheStreet.com is reporting that AT&T has hired Goldman Sachs to explore a possible acquisition of EchoStar (or its DISH satellite video business), a hypothetical that has been the subject of much rumor and speculation in recent weeks, following EchoStar's admission it was considering separating its DISH business from the rest of the company. Adding to the buzz, Citigroup analyst Jason Bazinet this week puts the odds of an AT&T DISH acquisition within the next year at 65%.

Such a move could help silence lingering questions about the fitness of AT&T's fiber-to-the-node strategy in an era of advancing high-definition video and the bandwidth it consumes. It could also vastly accelerate AT&T's video subscriber growth after delays in its IPTV rollout left it lagging behind cable competitors and a certain triple-play peer.

If AT&T really has been seriously considering this, it might help explain why so many vendors (including Adtran) have been reporting a slowdown in the carrier's spending lately. (What's that saying? "I don't mind going so slow; I might be going in the wrong direction"?) Several of those vendors could have a tough row to hoe should AT&T pull the trigger on EchoStar.

It's important to note, however, that hiring Goldman Sachs to investigate an option is not the same as choosing that option. I wouldn't worry too much if the weatherman said the chance of rain today was 65%. But you can bet I'd bring along an umbrella, just in case.

E-mail me at ed.gubbins@penton.com.