Time for a reshuffle

Big changes are afoot in the access market, and they couldn't come at a more opportune time. As carriers gear up for their smackdown with cable operators, they're spending more and more money in the sector. The jockeying for position among vendors is just starting, though.

Most analysts agree that the biggest incumbent vendors--namely Alcatel--are in the best position to dominate. But those same talking heads always leave themselves enough wiggle room in case they're completely wrong.

Nortel Networks got things off to a quick start Monday by announcing a new CEO, Mike Zafirovski, who telegraphed his attention to pare the company down to refocus on the things it does best. Might that be another run at the access market? Maybe. The company has a strong alliance with Calix, which is growing quickly and making no secret that it wants into a bigger account. Nortel acquiring its way back into access certainly wouldn't be out of the question.

Lucent Technologies, the other very traditional access player, will announce Wednesday that it's filling out its access line. Aiming specifically at the greenfield environment, the new platform is meant as a complement to Stinger and AnyMedia. The end result seems to be that Lucent isn't about to retreat from access and, in fact, may be rewarded for its decision to stick around when the bubble burst.

However, there also appears to be plenty of space for others, all of which will proclaim they're right there with Alcatel and Lucent, but which, in reality are battling over the crumbs falling off the big boys' table.

Adtran reported strong revenue for the third quarter and upped its 2005 guidance, mostly on the strength of carriers deploying more DSLAMs and optical equipment. Whether the company, along with the cornucopia of others in the sector, can sustain solid growth is still very much in question.

E-mail me at vvittore@primediabusiness.com