Which network will Apple’s tablet flood?

For a device that hasn’t even been confirmed by its maker, Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) enigmatic tablet has attracted much speculation about its potentially game-changing features. The tablet is still just the subject of rumor, but industry analysts, tech pundits and Apple fanboys alike are placing a lot of stock in it, hyping it as the first versatile device to fit perfectly in the middle ground between cell phone and PC. It could be a computing device, e-reader, gaming console, music player and access to Apple’s vast ecosystem of third-party applications. And presumably it will have some kind of 3G connection.

For the wireless operators, landing such a potentially powerful device would be a coup for their mobile data businesses, but it could also wreck their wireless data networks. AT&T (NYSE:T) learned that the hard way as millions of new iPhone activations have boosted subscribership and data revenues through the roof but have also played havoc with its still-young 3G network. Overloading on both the access and backhaul networks has left AT&T scrambling to upgrade its high-speed packet (HSPA) technology, add new 3G channels to its cell sites and feed fiber to its base stations. And it’s left AT&T open to attack from its arch-competitor Verizon Wireless (NYSE:VZ, NYSE:VOD), which has been hammering the operator relentlessly about its network coverage in a TV advertising campaign.

A smartphone is one thing, but an Internet tablet, the primary purpose of which is to access the data network, could do far more damage to AT&T’s still recovering 3G network. There is nothing requiring Apple to maintain its relationship with AT&T for the new device. In fact, given that its tablet wouldn’t have (traditional) voice service, there is nothing requiring Apple to have an exclusive relationship with any US operator. When – or if – the tablet comes to market, Apple will have a number of potential distribution channels. Apple’s lips remain sealed, but analysts discussed with Telephony Online a few of the more likely possibilities:

Whether or not it’s true that Verizon Wireless was offered exclusivity on the iPhone before AT&T, if it’s presented with the opportunity again, it will likely jump on it, said Julien Blin, principal analyst and CEO of JBB Research. There are still rampant rumors that VZW is interested in carrying the iPhone, perhaps an LTE version, when Apple’s exclusivity ends. But in the meantime, Blin said it makes sense for VZW to carry the Apple tablet and accept any exclusivity conditions Apple might impose. Whatever deal Verizon reaches, though, it will be fleeting, he said.

“It doesn’t really matter who gets its first, because at the end of the day most carriers in the US will get it anyways,” Blin said, adding that at the least, all the carriers want to get the tablet. “It would be nice for Verizon to get it, because they can’t get the iPhone right now. Maybe that will be a good reason for Apple to speed up the [CDMA iPhone development] process with Verizon once they see Verizon is gaining traction with the tablet.”

While pairing North America’s largest operator with the world’s hottest device maker might seem like a natural match, Verizon would bring some baggage to the marriage in the form of its CDMA EV-DO network. Apple would have to make at least two versions of the tablet, one aimed at Verizon and other CDMA operators in the Americas and parts of Asia, and one aimed at the more than 80% of wireless operators globally that have HSPA networks. One of the reasons AT&T matched so well with the iPhone was its HSPA network—Apple only had to make one phone it could sell all over the world.

Presumably the price tag of a tablet would higher—speculation has it as high as $1000—than the iPhone, supporting even bigger margins for Apple. If that’s the case Apple might not be so reticent to offer different versions of the tablet for different networks, just as it offers different hardware configurations for its laptops. Apple could also stick with its single-device strategy by adopting a multi-mode, multi-band chipset or even use software-defined radio chipsets like Qualcomm is selling to laptop and module makers.