Sprint loses ground in the 4G war as T-Mobile gets faster

When T-Mobile first started using 4G to describe its hopped-up 3G network, it justified its bold assertion by claiming it had every right to the 4th generation moniker if its network could match Sprint’s WiMAX speeds. That seemed like a questionable claim, while T-Mobile in many cases could match the advertised claims of Sprint’s 4G service, the Clearwire-built WiMAX network was still blowing T-Mobile high-speed packet access plus (HSPA+) network out of the water in nearly all tests (CP: Mobile data triage: testing the operators at CES).

But a lot can happen in a few months. Several new test reports have emerged that show T-Mobile’s network beat Sprint’s hands down. Last week PCMag released detailed numbers on 16 handsets drive tested extensively in 21 markets, and while Verizon Wireless' new long-term evolution (LTE) ran away with the results, the study also found T-Mobile’s HSPA+ network averaging 3.7 Mb/s across all markets while Sprint’s WiMAX service averaged only 3 Mb/s. The drive testing also discovered that T-Mobile was also achieving peak speeds of 15.2 Mb/s while Sprint managed only 10.5 Mb/s.

That’s just one report, but there’s plenty more evidence that Sprint is losing ground to T-Mobile in network performance. RootMetrics has routinely found Sprint’s WiMAX service to outperform T-Mobile’s HSPA+ in nearly two years of drive testing far more extensive than PCMag’s. But two of its most recent market reports, for Boston and Miami, found T-Mobile’s network the faster.

T-Mobile’s network is getting faster--and it can’t be explained by its recent launch of dual-carrier HSPA+ services (CP: T-Mobile rolls out dual-carrier HSPA+). By doubling carrier bandwidth, T-Mobile is theoretically able to double downlink speeds to its customers, but dual-carrier radios are only available to laptop USB modems. All of the tests performed on T-Mobile’s service have been performed over smartphones, which can only support a single-carrier connection. The explanation isn’t as simple as a network upgrade, but there are several factors that could be responsible for the shift in performance between the two networks:
- T-Mobile’s networks aren’t just getting faster, Sprint’s are getting slower. Sprint, Clearwire and Clearwire’s wholesale partners are loading up the WiMAX network with more and more smartphones, embedded laptops and modems. The increasing number of connections was bound to start slowing down connection speeds at some point as more customers vie for available capacity. We’re probably starting to see the beginning of that increased congestion in these reports.

- T-Mobile has a lot faster devices. When it first launched the HSPA+ network, it wasn’t selling HSPA+ phones. The first devices could support a maximum theoretical connection of 14.4 Mb/s though real-world speeds were a fraction of that number. With the introduction of the Samsung Galaxy S (Unfiltered: T-Mobile driving 4G message home), T-Mobile got its first smartphone capable of utilizing the full 21 MB/s capabilities of HSPA+. As testers have introduced the Galaxy and other 21 Mb/s phones into their test regimes, T-Mobile’s performance data has likely jumped considerably as the new devices can access much more of the network’s potential bandwidth.

- Sprint’s network remains static, while T-Mobile’s is growing. Since Clearwire ran out of cash, its network build has stalled, even though Sprint and its other partners continue to add WiMAX subscribers at a furious pace. Meanwhile, T-Mobile is expanding its HSPA+ and fiber backhaul networks to more markets and more places within existing markets. In addition, the launch of dual-carrier means that T-Mobile has two HSPA+ carriers running in all of the markets that it offers the service, giving it twice the capacity if not twice the speed. Basically, as T-Mobile’s 4G customer base is growing, its network is growing to accommodate it. Sprint and Clearwire overbuilt their original network, launching three WiMAX carriers at every cellsite, but after two years, those carriers are starting to get full.

These are just a single round of reports and the operators are still close enough in the testing that their positions could easily reverse in the coming months. But according to BTIG Research—which also found Sprint’s WiMAX performance suffering in its own tests (CP: A closer look at BTIG’s 4G speed tests), the emerging trend should be a huge cause of concern for Sprint. BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk said that T-Mobile has already been luring data customers away from Sprint due to its aggressive pricing. If T-Mobile can actually demonstrate that its 4G service is faster as well as cheaper than Sprint’s, it would have a huge advantage, he said.

“A year ago, Sprint was the first with 4G, with the best Android phone and the fastest 4G network,” Piecyk said via e-mail. “Now not only is Verizon offering better phones and faster 4G speeds but T-Mobile is also topping Sprint’s 4G speeds with its initial deployment of [HSPA+], a pseudo 4G network. T-Mobile’s phones will only get faster when they launch [dual-carrier HSPA+] later this year. With AT&T’s launch of LTE and T-Mobile upgrading, … Sprint will be relegated to delivering the slowest 4G speeds among the national wireless operators in the United States.”

Of course, T-Mobile’s ascendance isn’t set in stone. Speeds are determined more by the configurations of networks than the underlying technology used. If Clearwire were to add more WiMAX carriers, Sprint could easily leap back over T-Mobile in average network speeds. But if T-Mobile moves ahead with dual-carrier smartphones, it could leave Sprint in the dust—at least until it launches the LTE network everyone assumes it will announce this summer (CP: Clearwire hints at LTE build with Sprint) or build with the help of LightSquared (Unfiltered: Sprint-LightSquared sharing plans are a go, but will there be anything to share?).