Will AT&T call its HSPA+ network 4G?

I have a prediction: By the end of the year or early next, AT&T (NYSE:T) will launch 4G. No, it won’t be long-term evolution (LTE)—that will come later in 2011. Instead AT&T will follow T-Mobile’s (NYSE:DT) lead and start calling its high-speed packet access plus (HSPA+) network a 4G network. The only reasons its hasn’t started doing so today are the lack of any commercial HSPA+ devices on its network and the fact it doesn’t have the fiber backhaul in place to support HSPA+’s advertised speeds.

This will drive Verizon Wireless (NYSE:VZ, NYSE:VOD) absolutely ape. Little T-Mobile messing with 4G’s definition is one thing, but VZW’s biggest competitor taking liberties with the marketing term is another. VZW may threaten to sue or file truth in advertising complaints with the appropriate ethics and regulatory organizations, but they won’t really have much of a leg to stand on. VZW after all is misusing technical terms itself—at least those officially defined by the ITU—by calling LTE 4G.

Instead Verizon will be forced to take its case to the television airwaves, launching an advertising onslaught that will make its ‘map for that’ campaign appear benign. It won’t have to mince facts and figures either. There’s no doubt that VZW’s LTE network will be much faster than AT&T’s HSPA+ network and probably considerably faster than T-Mobile’s planned multicarrier HSPA+ network. In short, VZW can be ruthless, likely accusing AT&T of launching false 4G while it launches the real deal.

I doubt this will faze AT&T much. When was the last time VZW had anything kind to say about AT&T in its advertising? And if AT&T stuck with 3G moniker, Verizon would still run the same critical advertising. It would just focus on the speed differences rather than AT&T’s terminology. AT&T has little to lose and everything gain. By using the 4G name, AT&T can give the appearance it’s keeping up with VZW step for step in network technology.

Will the public buy it? I think so. We in the industry hear every day the differences between 3G and so-called 4G technologies. But differences of latency, network efficiency and IP architectures are subtle differences at best and are irrelevant to the majority of populations. The industry has reduced generational differences to a simple equation: the more’ Gs’ the more speed. If AT&T can offer a significantly faster mobile broadband experience over what typical 3G networks offer today, the public will buy its explanation.

The only problem I foresee with this hypothetical scenario is what to call LTE when AT&T launches the network in late 2011. It doesn’t want to spend billions of dollars on a new network and not distinguish it from its other networks. Will we start seeing terms like 4.5G or Super 4G tossed around? I suspect it won’t be long before operators start tossing the generation terminology out the window as it becomes meaningless not just to average Joe but the industry at large. In fact, we might start seeing whacky names like Network Xtreme or Hyperspeed emerging in the next year or two (editor’s note: see Comcast’s Xfinity, AT&T’s uVerse and Verizon’s FioS in the wired world).

If you have any ideas for a new name for 4G networks, submit it in the comment section. We’ll feature the best ideas in a future column.