Ready or not, here comes mobile VoIP

Verizon Wireless’ (NYSE:VZ, NYSE:VOD) partnership with Skype was only the beginning. Mobile voice-over IP services are set to explode, and it could actually be wireless operators, changing their ways after years of resistance, that are helping to drive the explosion.

The number of consumers using mobile VoIP will approach 288 million by 2013, according to market research from In-Stat. Of these users, well over half will get their service from an online mobile VoIP provider, under one-third will use it over 3G through a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) or wireless operator, and 11% will use a WiMax or LTE operator. Another research firm, Gartner, is also forecasting that 10 years from now more than half of mobile voice traffic will be carried end to end using VoIP.

VoIP has been driven by the likes of cable companies that want to disrupt the incumbent phone companies, In-Stat said, but that is already starting to change. Skype has U.K.-based 3 and Verizon Wireless on its list of operator partners and has promised AT&T 3G support “very soon.” Skype also added Nokia’s Symbian line of smartphones to its arsenal, which could expand the VoIP app across 200 million more smartphones. Just yesterday VoIP app Truphone inked a deal with Australian wireless provider Optus for its Truphone Local Anywhere service, offered as an MVNO of Optus’ network.

It is clear that mobile VoIP is starting to become a lot more palatable to wireless operators if they are able to retain some of the control. For Skype and Verizon in particular, Verizon is requiring Skype users to also have a voice and data plan, so there’s little risk of revenue cannibalization or a mass exodus of voice subscribers. Embracing this semi-openness could ultimately have only upside for carriers.

More than anything, carriers are smart to embrace mobile VoIP on their 3G networks because eventually it may not be their choice. All the U.S. carriers have been feeling the squeeze from the FCC to open their networks. Regulatory pressure, coupled with the rise in popularity of mobile VoIP, is creating an environment in which consumers might start to expect the service to be offered or leave the wireless operator if it’s not.

Especially if Skype and Verizon are successful together, it’s a safe bet that other operators will follow suit. Verizon is acting as the litmus test for the U.S. wireless industry, just as 3 in the U.K. has helped make VoIP more palatable to operators abroad. And given the projections, wireless operators are rapidly approaching the day when they won’t need to decide whether they’ll welcome mobile VoIP on 3G, just how they will do it.

E-mail me at sarah.reedy@penton.com.